As we enter the first week of the month, it’s time for the usual reset of monthly updates, promising a data-heavy week with a slew of US numbers on the agenda. Alongside key updates from the world’s largest economy, crucial data releases are expected from other regions, as well as the first major rate decision of the month from the Bank of Canada.
Markets are likely to experience gapping at the open in Asia on Monday, following a weekend marked by heightened tensions in the Middle East, particularly after Israel recovered the bodies of more hostages held in Gaza. Traders will be paying close attention to the Oil and Gold markets as they open.
Here’s our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
The week starts quietly, with only lower-tier data scheduled across the trading sessions. Bank Holidays in both the US and Canada are likely to dampen investor enthusiasm. However, traders are bracing for potential volatility due to increased geopolitical risks over the weekend.
The tier 1 data calendar kicks off on Tuesday during the European session with two significant updates from Switzerland: CPI data and GDP figures, which are likely to drive moves in the Franc. The first US numbers of the week are due out shortly after the New York open, with the ISM Manufacturing PMI scheduled.
The early focus will be on the Australian economy, as the Quarterly GDP data is released during the Sydney trading day. The European session features only lower-tier numbers, but the US session should be active with the first of four key job updates from the States in the form of the JOLTS Job Openings, as well as the Bank of Canada’s Rate Decision update.
Australia remains in the spotlight during the Asian session, with Reserve Bank Governor Michele Bullock scheduled to speak in Sydney. The London session will see the release of the UK Construction PMI data, but significant market moves are expected once New York opens. Two more US job updates are due: the ADP Non-Farms and the weekly unemployment claims, both closely watched, followed by the ISM Services PMI release.
The focus on Friday will be on the US Employment data, with the usual trio of Non-Farm Payrolls, Average Hourly Earnings, and the Unemployment Rate set to be released early in the US session. With little on the calendar in the preceding trading sessions, expect some consolidation ahead of this crucial data release, which could significantly influence the Fed’s rate decision outlook. Any deviations from expectations could trigger major moves across markets into the weekend. Additionally, Fed members Waller and Williams are scheduled to speak in the afternoon, though the employment data is expected to dominate investor sentiment.
