It was another busy week for markets last week, but many investors may consider us to be in a better position with regard to global trade and tariffs at the start of this week than any of the previous ones since President Trump’s ‘Liberation Day’.
There is a good mix of key data releases and central banker updates in the coming days, with the highlight likely to come from the US in the form of the latest CPI data.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It is set to be a quiet start to the week with little on the calendar across all three trading sessions. There is some concern of gapping on the Monday open in Asia after updates over the weekend from Switzerland with regard to some progress in trade talks between China and the US, which could see some positive ‘risk-on’ moves at the start of the day.
Things look busier on the calendar on Tuesday, with key data due out of both the US and UK. There is little again to move the dial in the Asian session, but there will be a strong focus on UK markets after the European open, with British employment numbers out early in the day. The major data drop of the week comes shortly after the New York open with the key CPI data being released, before focus moves back to the UK later in the session with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey scheduled to speak.
Asian markets will see the initial focus on Australia, with Wage Price Index data due out midway through the day. We have little in the way of major data releases scheduled for the rest of the day; however, we do hear from some key central bankers, including German Buba President Joachim Nagel, the MPC’s Breeden, and Fed members Waller and Jefferson.
Thursday looks set to be the busiest calendar day of the week for traders, with key data out in all three sessions. The focus in Asia will again be on Australian markets early in the day, with employment data due out. We have key data in the UK again shortly after the London open, this time with GDP data being released. We then have a big US data drop early in the New York day, with the latest PPI, Retail Sales, and Weekly Unemployment Claims numbers all out alongside the Philly Fed and Empire State Manufacturing Index updates. However, even those numbers may be eclipsed 10 minutes later when we hear from Fed Chair Jerome Powell.
Friday certainly looks to be a bit quieter than Thursday; however, there are still a few fundamental updates due out that could move markets. Inflation Expectations numbers are due out in New Zealand midway through the Asian session, and although there is no major data due out in Europe, we do hear from Swiss National Bank Chairman Martin Schlegel during the morning. The US session has the US Preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers out before the calendar week is closed out with an update from the Fed’s Mary Daly.
