US Markets Calm Ahead of Jobs Numbers – Dow up 0.2%
US stock markets had a relatively quiet day ahead of tonight’s key jobs number with the major indices all remaining near record levels as we move into the last sessions of the week. The Dow closed up 0.2%, whilst the S&P and Nasdaq both finished up close to flat, dropping just 0.02% and 0.09% respectively. Treasury yields edged lower again, the 2-year losing 1 basis point to trade down to 4.720% with the 10-year losing a single basis point as well to drop to 4.281%. Currencies also had a relatively quiet day and traded in familiar ranges, whereas there were some stronger moves in commodities. Oil prices climbed for the second consecutive day, with Brent gaining 1.86% to $79.87 whilst WTI added 2% to trade up to $75.55 and Gold moved further north trading up 0.8% to $2,372 an ounce by the close of the day.
Fed Expectations Riding on Non-Farms
We are now three for three this week in terms of weaker than expected updates on the US job market. JOLTS Job Openings, the ADP Non-Farm Employment, and last night’s weekly unemployment claims numbers have all pointed to a softening jobs market in the US and markets have already started to price in swifter easing from the Fed. Investors are now looking at the big data later in the day for the final big nail in the coffin and anything south of the expected 182k return will see more moves in the direction that we have already seen earlier in the week, with yields set to come under further pressure along with the dollar and it could open the way for further record highs in the US indices.
All Eyes on Non-Farms Today for Traders
The major focus for the day will undoubtedly be on the New York session today and the release of the key US employment data suite. There are only lower-tier data releases scheduled in the Asian and European days, but traders are expecting plenty of volatility in the final session of the week. The headline non-farms payroll number is expected to show an 182k increase in May and anything significantly away from that print should see big moves in the market. The average hourly early earnings and unemployment rate are released at the same time, but the headline number will usually dictate the initial market reaction. And as usual spare a thought for Canadian dollar traders who have to deal with the double update of US and Canadian employment numbers hitting the market at the same time.
