ICMarket

General Market Analysis – 05/12/24

US Stocks Push Higher After Fed Chair – Nasdaq Up 1.3%

US stock indices surged to fresh record levels in trading yesterday following positive comments on the US economy from the Federal Reserve Chair. The Nasdaq led the gains, closing up 1.29%, followed by the Dow and S&P, which ended the session up 0.70% and 0.61%, respectively.

Currency markets remained volatile as geopolitical factors continued to weigh heavily. The Euro dropped sharply after the confirmation of a French government collapse but later recovered, with the DXY closing the day down 0.10% at 106.32. Treasury yields declined as the market continued to price in a 25-basis-point rate cut from the Fed. The 2-year yield fell by 2.4 basis points to 4.127%, while the 10-year yield dropped 1.5 basis points to 4.184%.

Oil prices slid ahead of today’s key OPEC+ meetings, with Brent down 1.78% to $72.31 and WTI falling 2% to $68.54. Gold traded within a relatively tight range, gaining 0.4% to close at $2,654.23.

FX Traders Prepare for More Moves on Geopolitics

FX traders are preparing for further sharp currency movements in the coming sessions, following recent political shocks in South Korea and France that triggered significant market reactions. While both the won and the Euro have since stabilised, market participants are closely monitoring news updates and expect continued volatility in these currencies.

The prevailing sentiment suggests further downside risks due to ongoing uncertainty; however, traders acknowledge the potential for equally strong upward moves if positive developments emerge. Geopolitical factors remain a dominant driver of market sentiment.

More Data Today Ahead of Tomorrow’s NFP

Markets are expected to remain active today as traders digest an eventful overnight session in the US, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s latest comments. Geopolitical developments, which have been unfolding rapidly this week, also remain a key focus.

The Asian session is likely to be relatively quiet due to a sparse economic calendar. However, UK markets will come into focus during the European open, with Construction PMI data due early in the day. The forecast is for a print of 53.5.

In the US, weekly unemployment claims are scheduled during the New York session (forecast: 215,000), with attention later shifting to Canada for the release of Ivey PMI figures. As traders prepare for tomorrow’s highly anticipated Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) report, markets are likely to see continued activity throughout the day.