ICMarket

General Market Analysis 29/02/2024

US Markets Retreat Ahead of Crucial Inflation Data – Nasdaq down 0.55%

US Stocks markets dropped off slightly yesterday as investors remained cautious ahead of key inflation data due out later today. The Dow Jones dropped just 0.06%, the S&P lost 0.17% and the Nasdaq took a more substantial 0.55% hit. The dollar spiked up against the majors, with the biggest moves against the antipodean currencies after a lower then expected CPI print in Australia and a more dovish than expected rate hold by the RBNZ. US treasury yields pulled back from recent highs, the 2-year down 6.2 basis points to 4.649% and the 10-year off 3.5 basis points to 4.404%. Oil and Gold both traded in familiar ranges as commodity traders looked ahead to tonight’s data release.

Bitcoin Bonanza Continues to Attract Investors

Bitcoin surged again in trading yesterday as more institutional investors piled into the world’s most popular cryptocurrency. It topped out just under $64,000 after flying through the $60,000 level for the first time in two years, this represents at 42% gain in the last month, it’s largest monthly gain since December 2020. Investment has been pouring into BTC ahead of April’s halving event with major support from flow into new spot ETF’s. The value of all Bitcoin in circulation has now topped $2 trillion and traders are now looking to see how far it can go in the current ‘risk on’ environment with the all-time high at $69,000 seemingly only a day’s trading away!

Key Inflation Data Ahead for Traders Today

Today’s trading day is set to be the weeks busiest in risk event terms. Markets have very much been in a consolidatory phase ahead of today’s data, so once we get the key inflation releases out of the way we should see volatility pick up considerably. The Asian session kicks off with Australian markets firmly in focus with the latest Retail Sales numbers due out early in the day. There is a raft of data releases due out in the European session, but the highlights will undoubtedly be the latest CPI numbers out in Germany, France, and Spain. The US session is of course where the major focus of the day and indeed the week will, as the Fed’s favoured inflation data, the PCE Price Index number is due out soon after the New York open. Canadian markets will be monitoring the GDP data closely and from the US we also have the weekly unemployment claims numbers, the Chicago PMI and comments from the Fed’s Mester and Bostic, but expect the PCE number to dominate market reactions.