US Stocks Remain Elevated into Big Week – Nasdaq up 0.3%
US stock markets remained trading at elevated levels, with the S&P and Nasdaq both notching up record closes ahead of a big week of US data and a Fed rate call. The Dow eased 0.14% lower, while the S&P added just 0.02% and the Nasdaq 0.33%. The dollar jumped higher on the back of the EU-US trade deal, with the euro taking more of a knock than the other majors, as German industry warned against the tariff impact. The DXY was up 1.05% to 98.67. Treasury yields were quieter, the 2-year adding just 0.3 of a basis point to move up to 3.926%, and the 10-year gaining 2.2 basis points to 4.410%. Oil prices leapt higher after President Trump drastically pulled in his ceasefire deadline on Russia—Brent up 2.75% to $70.32 and WTI up 2.81% to $66.99 a barrel—whilst gold pulled back again in line with the stronger dollar, down 0.68% on the day to close at $3,314.08 an ounce.
Jobs Numbers to Push Markets This Week
US jobs data is due out across the trading sessions this week, and traders are expecting to see big moves on the back of the updates. Anything pointing to a resilient jobs market in the US—which much of the recent data has been—will be seen as pushing the Federal Reserve Bank to keep rates higher for longer and should lead to further strengthening in the dollar, which jumped over 1% last night. Whereas drops in the data—which are predicted—should see a rate cut locked in for September and could see the dollar retreat some of its recent rally. Undoubtedly, the big number is the Non-Farms on Friday, but the JOLTS, ADP, and usual weekly unemployment claims numbers will also affect the Fed outlook, and we should see volatility around those events.
US Data Updates Kick Off Today
It is another relatively quiet day on the economic calendar today; however, traders are expecting to see more moves across the market as investors adjust to tariff updates and trade deals ahead of key US data due out over the next few days. There is little on the calendar today in the first two trading sessions; however, we do see the first of several major US data updates once New York opens. The first jobs numbers of the week are released, with the JOLTS job openings expected to print at 7.51 mio, and CB Consumer Confidence data is also due out, with the market expecting a 95.9 print, up from 93.00 last time out. Traders will continue to monitor newswires as the day progresses, but also be looking ahead to tomorrow’s Fed interest rate update.
