What happened in the US session?
The DXY retraced from the high with most major currencies gaining briefly against the US dollar.
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
Look for the major currencies to complete the retracement and continue with the previous trend.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
USD CB Consumer Confidence
What can we expect from DXY today?
Overnight, the DXY retraced from the high of 105.30 to trade down to the 104.60 price level. This move lower was partially due to a significantly lower than expected durable goods orders at -4.5% (Forecast: -3.7%). Look for the DXY to rebound from the current price level to trade higher, and to retest the 105.30 resistance level again. Look for the consumer confidence data release (Forecast: 108.5 Previous: 107.1) to possibly spur the DXY to resume the uptrend.
Central Bank Notes:
- Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25bps taking interest rates to 4.75%
- Next meeting is on 23 March 2023
- Ongoing rate increases will be expected
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Gold today?
As the DXY retraced lower overnight, Gold rebounded from the 1808 price level to reach the 1821 price level. As Gold currently consolidates along the 1817 price level, look for a potential breakout to the upside to retest the 1828 resistance level. However, if the DXY recovers in strength, look for Gold to reverse and trade lower, with the key support level at the round number price of 1800.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
The AUDUSD traded slightly higher overnight and is currently consolidating at the 0.6740 price level. If the DXY recovers in strength, look for a breakout potential to the downside on the AUDUSD. If the price breaks below the 0.6730 price level, the AUDUSD could trade down to the 0.6700 price level. Beyond the 0.67 price level, the next key support level is at 0.6585.
Central Bank Notes:
- Cash rate stands at 3.35%
- Future rate rises are expected as RBA targets the 2-3% inflation target.
- Next meeting on 7 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
Yesterday, the NZDUSD traded along the support level and within the price range of 0.6130 and 0.6180. As the price failed to break above the 0.62 price level, the downward pressure on the NZDUSD is likely to persist. Look for the NZDUSD to break below the 0.6130 price level to signal a continuation of the downtrend, with the next key support level at the round number price level of 0.60.
Central Bank Notes:
- Cash rate stands at 4.75%
- Central bank is likely to continue with the current path of rate adjustment
- Next meeting is on 5 April 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
The USDJPY continued to consolidate along the 136.30 price level despite the weakness of the DXY overnight. As the USDJPY resisted moves to the downside, look for a potential breakout to the upside, with the 136.50 price level a key trigger level. If the DXY strengthens and the USDJPY breaks out to the upside, the USDJPY could trade significantly higher toward the next key resistance level of 138.50.
Central Bank Notes:
- Cash rate stands at -0.1%
- Expanded range for 10 year JGB yield fluctuations to 0.5%
- Next meeting is on 8 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
