ICMarket

IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 31 August 2023

Global Markets:

  •  Asian Stock Markets : Nikkei up 0.74%, Shanghai Composite down 0.55%, Hang Seng down 0.83%, ASX up 0.10%
  • Commodities : Gold at $1972.80 (-0.03%), Silver at $24.51 (-0.92%), Brent Oil at $85.25 (0.09%), WTI Oil at $81.69 (0.09%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 4.096, UK 10-year yield at 4.457, Germany 10-year yield at 2.509

News & Data:

  • (USD) ADP Non-Farm Employment Change 177K vs 194K expected
  • (USD) Prelim GDP q/q 2.1% vs 2.4% expected

Markets Update:

Asia-Pacific markets exhibited a range of performances, influenced by China’s ongoing contraction in factory activity extending for the fifth consecutive month in August. The official manufacturing purchasing managers index stood at 49.7, showing a milder contraction rate compared to the expected 49.4 by economists. This indicated improvement from July’s figure of 49.3.

Market movements varied across the region. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index initially gained ground but ultimately retreated by 0.83%, erasing earlier advances. On the Chinese mainland, stocks experienced a decline, with the CSI 300 index dropping about 0.6%. In contrast, Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose by 0.6%, and the Topix increased by 0.68%. Notably, Japan’s retail sales for July surpassed expectations, recording a year-on-year growth of 6.8%, outperforming the projected 5.4%.

In contrast, South Korea’s Kospi faced a setback, declining by 0.42% due to a notable 8% year-on-year drop in industrial production for July. This marked the tenth consecutive month of contraction in industrial output. The Kosdaq, however, showed marginal gains. Similarly, the Australian S&P/ASX 200 index shifted below the neutral line after three consecutive days of gains earlier in the week.

Across the Pacific, in the U.S., all three major indexes showed positive momentum on Wednesday. The S&P 500 continued its four-day winning streak as investors digested new U.S. economic data. However, the U.S. annual gross domestic product growth for the second quarter was revised downward to 2.1%, down from the initial forecast of 2.4%. The broad-market index rose by 0.38%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged up by 0.11%, and the tech-focused Nasdaq Composite advanced significantly with a gain of 0.54%.

Upcoming Events: 

  • 12:30 PM GMT – CAD Current Account
  • 12:30 PM GMT – USD Core PCE Price Index m/m
  • 12:30 PM GMT – USD Flash Manufacturing PMI
  • 1:45 PM GMT – USD Chicago PMI
  • 2:30 PM GMT – USD Natural Gas Storage