The upcoming week appears to be extremely busy for traders, with a full slate of US economic indicators scheduled, typical for the first trading week of the month. Four separate job reports, culminating with the non-farm payrolls on Friday, are anticipated, along with additional inflation data that could influence the Fed’s decisions in the months ahead.
In addition to the US updates, there are also two significant central bank rate decisions to navigate, with both the European Central Bank and the Bank of Canada expected to cut rates in the days ahead.
Here’s a day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
Expect volatility in the oil market as the OPEC+ Meetings conclude in Vienna. While the event calendar is light in the first two sessions, the US data show begins with the release of both the Final Manufacturing PMI number and the ISM Manufacturing PMI data.
Asian traders will have little activity early on, but Swiss traders should be attentive to the release of Swiss CPI data on the European open. Shortly after the New York open, the first US jobs numbers of the week will be released, with JOLTS Job Openings expected around 8.4 million.
Australian markets take the spotlight early in the day with the release of key Quarterly GDP data, with market expectations for a 0.2% increase. Although there’s not much on the calendar during the London session, the North American session is busy with the release of ADP Non-Farm Employment Change and ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers in the US, and the Bank of Canada rate decision in Ottawa.
Asian markets are expected to be relatively calm. The focus shifts to the UK on the European open with the release of the latest Construction PMI numbers. Attention then turns to the ECB rate call, with the bank expected to cut rates for the first time in years. In the US session, the usual weekly unemployment claims data will be released, along with the Ivey PMI number in Canada.
All eyes will be on the New York session as the key non-farm payroll data is released to close out the week. Although only lower-tier data releases are scheduled in the Asian and European sessions, traders are anticipating plenty of volatility. Average Hourly Earnings and the unemployment rate will be released alongside the NFP number, with Canadian employment data also scheduled for release at the same time.
