Investors largely shrugged off tariff updates and threats this week as sentiment remained positive and stock indices hit all-time highs; however, we did see a bit of a dip on Friday as markets prepare for key earnings reports in the weeks ahead.
There is a big focus on inflation data in the week ahead, with key CPI numbers out in a few key countries including the US, and any significant deviations from expectations could see some big moves in rate expectations and markets.
It is quieter on the central bank front, although we are set to hear from a plethora of Fed members across the course of the week, and this could also move that rate expectation dial.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It is a quiet start to the week on the economic calendar with no tier 1 releases scheduled; however, traders are expecting more volatility with President Trump promising an update on Russia.
Probably the busiest and potentially most impactful data day of the week, Tuesday sees key data releases across all three trading sessions. Chinese markets will be in focus in the Asian session with a big data drop midway through the day, with GDP, Industrial Production, and Retail Sales numbers all featuring. The London session has the German ZEW Economic Sentiment numbers due out, but the big data for the day comes early after the New York day opens. CPI data is due out of both Canada and the US, with the US numbers set to dominate, especially if the numbers are significantly off the expected 0.3% m/m increase. The Empire State Manufacturing Index data is also due out at the same time, and later in the day we hear from Fed members Barr, Barkin, Bowman, and Collins, as well as Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey near the day’s close.
There are more inflation updates on the cards on Wednesday. The Asian session is relatively quiet, but focus will be on UK markets early in the European day with the CPI numbers due for release. US PPI numbers are due out early in the New York day before we have the usual weekly US Crude Oil Inventory data. Fed members Barkin, Barr, and Williams are also set to speak.
Australian markets are in focus early in the Asian session with key employment data under an even stronger microscope this week after last week’s RBA hold. UK markets are again in focus on the London open with the employment data due for release, and we once again have tier 1 US numbers shortly after the New York open. Retail Sales, Weekly Unemployment Claims, and the Philly Fed Manufacturing Index data sets are all due out early in the day before we have more Fed updates, with members Kugler, Daly, Cook, and Waller all set to speak.
It is a much quieter calendar day on Friday with nothing major scheduled in the first two sessions of the day. The US session has the preliminary University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations numbers due out early in the day, but calendar-wise it should be a smoother run into the weekend for traders.
