It was another interesting week for investors last week as news of trade deals between the US and trade partners from across the globe, including China, helped to spur markets higher. However, those moves were caveated by some understandable investor caution, and traders are closely watching data and central bank updates as we move forward.
The week ahead looks likely to provide some further insight into how markets are adjusting to recent upheaval, and despite a relatively smooth calendar schedule ahead, traders are expected to see more moves in financial products in the next five trading days.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
A relatively quiet calendar day to kick off the week, and so far, we haven’t seen any dramatic geopolitical updates to cause any market gapping on the open. Chinese markets will be in focus midway through the Asian session with a big data dump due out that includes key Industrial Production data and Retail Sales numbers. The latter two sessions are quiet in terms of data releases; however, we do hear from several central bankers, including SNB Chair Martin Schlegel as well as Fed members Bostic, Williams, Jefferson, and Logan.
The Asian session should be a lively one, with both the People’s Bank of China and the Reserve Bank of Australia due to release interest rate updates during the day. There is little of interest scheduled in the London session, but Canadian markets will be in focus early in the New York day with key CPI data due out.
Wednesday looks relatively quiet again, with the main Tier 1 data releases coming in the European trading session, with key UK CPI numbers due out shortly before the European Central Bank’s Financial Stability Review. US Crude Oil Inventory data is due out in the New York session, but aside from that, the calendar is relatively quiet.
We have a raft of Flash Services and Manufacturing PMIs due out across the trading day today, with data due from Australia, France, Germany, the UK, the EU, and the US. The German IFO Business Climate data is due out in the London session before we have the usual Weekly Unemployment Claims data out in the US and hear from several central bankers, including the MPC’s Breedon and Dhingra, and the Fed’s Williams.
Friday is Retail Sales day, with retail numbers out in all three trading sessions from New Zealand, the UK, and Canada. Traders are expecting to see a bit more impact from Retail Sales numbers in the current tariff environment, so we may see some stronger reaction to these data prints than would normally be expected. US New Home Sales are also out later in the day, but calendar-wise, it should be a relatively smooth ride into the weekend.
