Volatility did seem to dip slightly across financial markets last week in a holiday-shortened trading period, although the propensity for moves off geopolitical updates remains high.
The macroeconomic calendar picks up considerably in the week ahead, with US data coming back to the fore alongside some key updates from other jurisdictions, including a key interest rate call from the Bank of Japan.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It’s a quiet start to the trading week on Monday, with little on the schedule to move the dial through most of the sessions, although Canadian dollar traders will keep a close eye on political developments with the Federal Election taking place.
Asian markets have little scheduled again; however, Japanese markets are on holiday, so liquidity will be slightly lower than usual. It’s a similar story in Europe, with just Spanish Flash CPI and GDP numbers of any real note, but things look set to heat up on the US open. We have the first of a few jobs numbers for the week out early in the day in the form of the JOLTS Job Openings data, as well as the CB Consumer Sentiment data release.
It is a busier day on the event calendar again on Wednesday, with the initial focus in Asia on Australian markets for the CPI data before it moves north to China for Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing data releases. Germany will be in focus shortly after the London open with Prelim CPI data due out before we hit the US session and several data releases. The US ADP Non-Farm numbers are due just before the Advance GDP data and Employment Cost Index numbers, with the Canadian GDP update also being released. Later in the session, we have the Fed’s favoured inflation number, the Core PCE Price Index numbers, out before Pending Homes data.
Thursday markets could be lively, with some key updates coming alongside May Day holidays in several major centres. The major focus for the Asian market will be the Bank of Japan’s rate call before we hit the European day and thinner liquidity conditions, with France, Germany, and Italy all on holiday. The New York day once again has some key data drops, with the usual Weekly Unemployment Claims numbers out before the ISM Manufacturing PMI and Prices data releases.
Non-Farms day has come around again, and it looks like the usual set-up, with little of note scheduled for the first two sessions of the day before we hit the US session and the big data drop. As always, the headline Non-Farm Employment Change number will dominate the initial market move, but the Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment Rate are also released at the same time, and they will influence moves as well.
