It is another potentially massive week for global markets in general, and US markets in particular, with key jobs numbers due out from the US across the week and a pivotal day for tariffs on 2 April.
There is a heavy focus on US data as we move through the week, with jobs data prominent, culminating in the key Non-Farms numbers on Friday.
There are some other key updates across other markets as well, but investors are once again expecting a heavy influence on markets from the US, both from a fundamental data perspective as well as from the expected trade updates.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
The week kicks off with an early focus on Chinese markets in the Asian session, with Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI numbers due out. The European session will see the focus on Germany, with all individual states reporting the CPI updates during the day, whilst the New York session has little on the cards in terms of data releases.
There is a big focus on Australian markets on Tuesday in the Asian session, with Retail Sales numbers out early in the day before the key Reserve Bank of Australia Rate Decision and Press Conference in the afternoon. There is more inflation data due out in Europe, with the EU CPI numbers due for release, and then we have the first major US data of the week once New York opens. ISM Manufacturing PMI and JOLTS Job Openings data are due out early in the session, with the JOLTS data likely to have the slightly bigger impact.
The quietest day of the week in terms of scheduled market events, with just the US ADP Non-Farms Employment data the only major release of the day. However, it could be one of the busiest days for traders, with the market expecting to get more clarity on tariffs from President Trump.
There is little of note on the calendar again in the Asian session, but traders are expecting a busy day on the back of tariff updates from the States and counter-tariff plans from affected countries. There will be a big focus on Swiss markets shortly after the London open, with the latest CPI data due out, and there is more key US data due out in the New York session, with the Weekly Unemployment Claims numbers out alongside the ISM Services PMI and Final Services PMI data.
It’s Non-Farms Payroll Day on Friday, and the schedule looks likely to set the market up for a classic calm-before-the-storm-type day. There is nothing of note again in the Asian session scheduled, and just the UK Construction PMI numbers in the European day, which should see relatively rangebound conditions (barring, of course, any big geopolitical news) into the big US employment numbers. The Unemployment Rate and Average Hourly Earnings data are out alongside the headline Non-Farms number, but as always, expect the headline number to dominate the initial market reaction. Canadian employment data is again out at the same time as the US numbers, but expect the moves to come on the back of the US updates.
