The Reserve Bank of Australia concludes its final meeting for 2024 on Tuesday, with the vast majority of market participants expecting it to keep rates on hold at 4.35%. The market’s interest and the probable volatility for the Aussie dollar are likely to stem from the board’s message in its statement, followed by Michele Bullock’s comments during the press conference an hour later.
Last week’s GDP numbers indicated that the Australian economy is slowing, leading some traders to anticipate a more dovish tone from the bank. However, most board members, particularly the Governor, have recently remained resolutely focused on combating inflation.
The Aussie is currently trading just above its annual low. Any more dovish-than-expected surprise could push it through trendline support and the annual low, into fresh downside ranges, with the 2022 low of 0.6169 as the next target. Conversely, a less dovish tone could trigger a relief rally for the pair, though traders expect any rallies to be limited given the recent trend and the prevailing appetite for the US dollar.
Resistance Levels:
- Resistance 2: 0.6884 – Long-Term Trendline Resistance
- Resistance 1: 0.6624 – 200-Day Moving Average
Support Levels:
- Support 1: 0.6346 – 2024 Low
- Support 2: 0.6169 – 2022 Low
