Financial markets are gearing up for a busy end to the trading week today, with the key US employment data due early in the New York session. The market expectation is for the headline Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) change to show an increase of 218,000 jobs in November, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.1% and Average Hourly Earnings slowing to a 0.3% month-on-month increase.
USD/JPY has experienced significant movement over the past couple of weeks, dropping over 5% since reaching highs just above 156.50 in mid-November. If the data significantly deviates from expectations, traders anticipate strong moves in the pair.
A strong print today could reduce expectations for a rate cut from the Fed in December, likely leading to dollar appreciation across the board. In this scenario, short-term resistance on the hourly chart, near the 200-day moving average, could be tested swiftly. Conversely, a weaker-than-expected print would bring short-term trendline support and this week’s low sharply into focus, with breaks of these levels potentially opening the way for a broader move into a fresh range.
Key Levels
- Resistance 2 – 152.98 – Trendline Resistance
- Resistance 1 – 150.87 – 200-Day Moving Average
- Support 1 – 149.02 – Trendline Support
- Support 2 – 148.63 – Multi-Month Low
