There is no doubt that Donald Trump’s tariff announcements have roiled markets today, and there are likely more strong moves to come over the next few sessions. However, experienced traders are well aware that some of the most impactful market data will be released late in the trading day tomorrow. While today’s reaction to the tariff updates is understandable, and traders must react accordingly, there remains significant uncertainty regarding the impact of both the sweeping 10% tariff and the individual reciprocal tariffs. However, traders will gain more certainty tomorrow when the U.S. employment figures are released, as they could have just as much of an impact—especially if they deviate from expectations.
Expectations are for the headline Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) number to show an increase of 137,000 new jobs in the past month, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.1% and average hourly earnings rising by 0.3% on a month-over-month basis. FX traders anticipate strong moves in the U.S. dollar upon the data release, with many closely watching USD/JPY, which is in a strong downtrend on the daily charts—further exacerbated by the Trump news. Any additional weakness in U.S. data, particularly in this highly significant jobs report, could lead to further selling pressure, accelerating the downside move through key support levels—if it hasn’t already broken lower by then. Conversely, a stronger-than-expected print may trigger relief rallies back into recent ranges, with initial resistance now sitting at the trendline just above 150.50.
Key Levels:
- Resistance 2: 151.39 – 200-Day Moving Average
- Resistance 1: 150.57 – Trendline Resistance
- Support 1: 147.46 – Trendline Support
- Support 2: 145.18 – Trendline Support
