EUR/USD:
Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the EUR/USD has punched below a major weekly Quasimodo support level coming in at 1.1109. This move has likely opened the gates for prices to challenge the weekly demand area seen below at 1.0760-1.0988.
Daily Timeframe: Yesterday saw the Euro print a (near) full-bodied bearish candle, which as a result forced the market deep into a daily demand area visible at 1.1045-1.1127 (surrounds the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support level). In the event that this area is consumed today, further downside will then be expected towards a daily swap area positioned at 1.1016-1.0952 (located just within the weekly demand area mentioned above at 1.0760-1.0988).
4hr Timeframe: The recent descent seen on the Euro was, as far as we can see, likely caused by positive US data (ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI) released yesterday. The strong 4hr close below the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support level will likely inspire the sellers to continue pushing this market south today down to at least the mid-level number 1.1050. This level, in our opinion, is a critical juncture for this pair, since a close below this barrier will likely encourage follow-through selling down to a major psychological threshold coming in at 1.1000, which, if you look back to the daily chart, you’ll notice this number is located within the daily swap (demand) area at 1.1016-1.0952.
Conversely, if price holds above 1.1050 and rallies higher, this may be the beginnings of a major fakeout of the weekly Quasimodo support level. However, at this point in time, it is just too early to tell.
Taking all of the above into account, our team’s main focus today will be WATCHING to see how price behaves (if it reaches this low that is) around the 1.1050 mark before we can make any further judgments.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
GBP/USD:
Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that further downside from the weekly swap area at 1.5426-1.5561 has recently been seen. This move consequently pushed the GBP deep into the depths of a weekly swap level seen at 1.5270.
Daily Timeframe: Yesterday’s trading action saw the market plunge into a daily demand area coming in at 1.5195-1.5252, which, if you look back to the weekly chart, you’ll notice it’s located just below the aforementioned weekly swap level.
4hr Timeframe: Although both the weekly and daily timeframes show price trading around immediate support at the moment (see above), the 4hr timeframe on the other hand, indicates that price will very likely decline further before rallying higher. The reason for this is simply because price, at this point in time, is floating just above a mouth-watering 4hr demand area positioned at 1.5208-1.5237 (located relatively deep within the aforementioned daily demand area) that has ‘trade me’ written all over it.
Given the points made above, we’ve decided to set a pending buy order just above the aforementioned 4hr demand area at 1.5239, with a stop-loss order placed just below at 1.5203. Assuming that our buy level is triggered today, the first take-profit target will be set just below the 1.5300 handle at 1.5295.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: 1.5239 (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: 1.5203).
- Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: N/A).
AUD/USD:
Weekly Timeframe: For the past four weeks, price has been trading, or should we say ‘lingering’, above a weekly demand area at 0.7449-0.7678. Should a rally be seen here this week, weekly resistance (as far as we can see) is not expected to come into the market until around the 0.8064 region.
Daily Timeframe: At this point in time, the buyers and sellers continue to consolidate between 0.7844, and 0.7619. However, the buyers have recently been seen teasing the 0.7844 level, which, from where we’re standing, looks poised for a break higher. A convincing close above here would likely force the market to test a daily supply area seen at 0.8050-0.7994 (seen just below the weekly swap level 0.8064).
4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that buying and selling has well and truly been capped between the round number 0.7800 and a daily swap level mentioned above at 0.7844. Due to several high-impacting news events taking center stage today, this temporary consolidation will very likely be breached.
That being the case, here is how we intend to trade this pair today. Short-term buy trades up to the 4hr supply area at 0.7905-0.7881 may be possible if price closes above and retests the daily swap level as support. Conversely, if the market closes below and retests 0.7800 as resistance, we’ll begin looking for short-term sell trades down to 4hr demand at 0.7738-0.7764.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
USD/JPY:
Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price is currently trading around the upper limits of a weekly symmetrical triangle formation (121.83/117.43). A convincing close above this limit would likely encourage follow-through buying up to a weekly Quasimodo resistance level coming in at 122.18.
Daily Timeframe: Recent developments on the daily timeframe show price trading just below a daily resistance level seen at 120.45.This level, as far as we can see, remains a key obstacle to a move towards a daily supply area visible at 122.61-121.54, which, if you look back to the weekly chart, you’ll notice that this area encapsulates the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo support level.
4hr Timeframe: From the 4hr timeframe, we can see that price is currently hovering just above a 4hr swap level coming in at 119.40. Buying from this level, even with corresponding lower timeframe confirmation would, in our opinion, not be a trade we’d label high probability. The reason for this is simply because price is presently trading around higher-timeframe resistance at the moment (see above), and until this is consumed, we would not be comfortable buying here. That being the case, if price closes below 119.40 today, then this would essentially be our cue to begin watching for price to retest this number as resistance, since the path south would then likely be clear for profit down to at least the 119.00 handle.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
USD/CAD:
Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price is still being held lower by a weekly Quasimodo resistance level visible at 1.2765. If further selling is seen from here, price will likely hit the weekly swap level coming in at 1.2260.
Daily Timeframe: The daily picture reveals that support is currently being seen from a weak-looking daily decision-point demand area at 1.2378-1.2468. We believe this area to be fragile for the following reasons:
- On two occasions price broke below this zone (03/02/15 – 17/02/15), and has, as a result likely weakened the buying pressure here.
- Each time price hit this area, we can see that the buyers were clearly not strong enough to form a higher high, which, like above, in our opinion indicates possible weakness.
4hr Timeframe: The USD/CAD pair, as you can see, has broken out south from a small 4hr range (1.2533/1.2447). This move has very likely opened the doors for more downside towards a 4hr swap level coming in at 1.2379. To take advantage of this potential short-term move, one could either sell at market (not really a wise move when taking into consideration risk/reward) effectively selling the breakout, or, wait to see if price retests the 1.2447 level (tentative sell orders seen just below at 1.2441) as resistance and enter with corresponding lower timeframe confirmation. Due to our conservative trading nature, we favor the latter.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: 1.2441 [Tentative] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
USD/CHF:
Weekly Timeframe: Last week saw price close just (by a pip) above a weekly swap level at 0.9529, which has, at the time of writing, clearly attracted further buying in the market. In the event that the buyers can continue with this tempo, price will very likely hit another weekly swap level coming in at 0.9746 sometime soon.
Daily Timeframe: Yesterday’s trading action shows that price has recently spiked above a rather large daily swap area seen at 0.9522-0.9656. This break has potentially taken out any major supply here, and, at the same time, paved the way north for prices to challenge a daily Quasimodo resistance level seen at 0.9740 (located six pips below the aforementioned weekly swap level).
4hr Timeframe: The latest report coming in from the USD/CHF pair reveals that price was indeed held above the 0.9600 handle, which, as you can probably see, inspired the buyers to rally this market higher. However, despite a valiant attempt, the buyers failed to clear immediate resistance seen around the 0.9650 mark.
Let’s just quickly recap here, so that we’re all on the same page. The weekly chart shows that the market is extending higher following the recent close above a weekly swap level, while on the daily timeframe, price has spiked above a daily swap area (see above for levels) which may, or may not, have cleared out the supply, it’s really too early to make judgments at this point. So, where does this leave us on the 4hr timeframe? Well, we’re certainly not going to be buyers until we see price firmly close above 0.9650, and with regards to selling, our team would not be comfortable shorting this market until 0.9600 has been taken out.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
DOW 30:
Weekly Timeframe: Recent movements on the weekly timeframe show that price is currently retesting the weekly high 18098 as support.
Daily Timeframe: Yesterday’s trading action saw the market take a tumble, consequently spiking below a small daily decision-point demand area coming in at 18056-18130. This area is, as far as we can see, the last line of defense protecting the 18098 weekly swap level. If price closes below here, this would likely open the doors for further downside towards the 17896 daily swap level.
4hr Timeframe: From the 4hr timeframe, we can see that price has recently spiked below the aforementioned weekly swap level into a small 4hr swap area coming in at 18047-18014. Risk/reward parameters restrict us from entering long here since potential resistance is looming just above at 18148. In the event that price closes above 18148 however, then this will effectively be our cue to begin watching for price to retest this level as support and, if lower timeframe confirmation is seen, potentially buy the DOW up to18242 4hr Quasimodo resistance line.
Conversely, if price closes below this 4hr swap area, the market will then very likely sell off down to the daily swap level visible at 17896, which, if seen, is something our team will attempt to take advantage of.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
XAU/USD (Gold):
Weekly Timeframe: From the weekly timeframe, we can see that price is currently capped between a weekly swap level coming in at 1222.2, and a weekly demand area seen at 1166.8-1195.0.
Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe shows that buying and selling is currently taking place in between a weekly swap level mentioned above at 1222.2, and a daily ascending channel support line extended from the low 1131.4 (07/11/14). A close above here would likely force the market to test a small daily supply area at 1236.6-1227.7. On the other hand, should a close lower be seen, further selling would likely ensue down towards a daily swap level coming in at 1182.0.
4hr Timeframe: The latest coming in from the 4hr timeframe reveals that price has just closed below and retested a minor 4hr swap level seen at 1203.6. This move has very likely opened the gates for prices to challenge the 4hr demand area seen at 1190.0-1197.2 once more.
This 4hr demand area is a significant zone to us since it boasts not only trendline confluence from the daily ascending channel line (see above), but also, is located just within a weekly demand area mentioned above at 1166.8-1195.0.
Although we missed the first touch seen at this 4hr demand on Tuesday (1195.2), we have no plans on repeating the same mistake twice! If price reaches this area sometime today, our team will be on red alert – watching for lower timeframe buying confirmation around the 1198.1 mark. Assuming that we find an entry here, our first take-profit target will be set around the 1203.6 level. Ultimately though, we would, at that point, be looking for price to close above this level and retest it as support, thus giving us confidence to move our stop-loss order to breakeven.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: 1198.1 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1189.3).
- Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
