ICMarket

General Market Analysis 25/06/2024

US Stocks Mixed, Dow pushes on as Nasdaq Drops over 1%

US Stock indices experienced a mixed start to the trading week as market favourite Nvidia lost another 6% on the day to drag both the S&P and Nasdaq lower, while the Dow pushed on to hit a 1-month high. The Dow closed 0.66%, the S&P lost 0.31% and the Nasdaq plunged 1.09%. US Treasury yields were slightly lower, the 2-year losing 0.9 basis points to trade at 4.721% and the 10-year falling 1.9 basis points to 4.231%. The dollar lost some of its recent gains as traders maintain a close eye on the Yen with intervention talk rife in the market, it fell 0.4% on the index. Oil and Gold both gained in line with the weaker dollar, Brent up 0.9% to $86.01 a barrel, WTI up 1.1% to 81.63 a barrel and Gold pushed back up 0.5% into the range to close out the NY session at $2,332 an ounce.

Inflation Data in Focus

Investor focus is heavily on key inflation updates with some commentators already pushing the ‘waiting on PCE update’ narrative on some moves in US markets. But there are a lot of trading sessions, and indeed US data updates, ahead of that crucial data release on Friday and other jurisdictions that will come into play earlier in the week. The Canadian CPI update is due out today and after the Bank of Canada became the first major central bank to kick off its easing cycle a couple of weeks ago, traders will be focussed on whether they have got it right and inflation is being reigned in. Australian data is also due out tomorrow and markets are looking at that update with a different viewpoint as the RBA remained relatively hawkish at their meeting last week. All bodes well for FX traders as we start to see bigger potential interest rate differentials and therefore trading opportunities in the months ahead.

Data Calendar Builds up from Today

There are some key inflation data releases due out this week and the first one is due to hit traders’ screens later today when we have the latest CPI update from Canada. The Asians session looks to be relatively quiet in terms of data releases with just the Westpac Consumer Sentiment Data likely to move dials in Australia early in the piece, although once again the FX world is on intervention watch with the USDJPY trading just shy of the key 160 level this morning. There is also little on the calendar in the European session although we do hear from the FOMC’s Bowman who is set to speak in London. The highlight of the day is likely to be the CPI data release in Canada with an expectation for a 0.3% rise in the headline month-on-month number and a 2.6% rise in the Median year-on-year print.