Traders are preparing for more volatility in the FX market tonight and once again there is a key jobs number due out that could give a strong indication on where the big US employment data on Friday will point. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change data is a traditional front runner to Friday’s key Non-Farm Payrolls and many traders look to this data to position themselves ahead of Friday’s market. Expectation is for the data to show an increase of 124k for last month which will be a good improvement on last month’s disappointing 99k print.
Traders are looking closely at the Aussie at the moment as it is trading close to some key technical levels and a sharp deviation from expectations from the ADP could see some strong moves in the currency. It has topped out several times over the last few days on the annual highs, around the 0.6930/40 level and is now sitting just south of the 69-cent level going into the European trading session. Another downward surprise in the data tonight could see those topside levels challenged again and push the Aussie into fresh topside ranges, whereas a stronger number – and JOLTS job data in the US was stronger than expected last night – could see it cleanly break the 200 Day Moving Average and move further south into recent ranges.
Resistance 2: 0.7162 – 2023 High
Resistance 1: 0.6942 – 2024 High and Trendline Resistance
Support 1: 0.6871 – 200 Day Moving Average
Support 2: 0.6770 – Trendline Support
