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General Market Analysis – 02/12/24

US Stocks Finish the Month on a High – Nasdaq Up 0.8%

US stock markets concluded another strong day on Wall Street on Friday, marking their best month in a year. The Dow rose by 0.42% on the day, the S&P gained 0.56%, while the Nasdaq outperformed, closing 0.83% higher. Markets resumed trading following the Thanksgiving holiday, with yields and the dollar continuing to retreat from recent highs. The DXY fell by 0.26%, ending the week at 105.79, while Treasury yields dropped significantly, with the two-year yield falling six basis points to 4.163% and the ten-year losing 6.8 basis points to close at 4.174%. Oil prices declined as supply concerns eased further, with Brent crude down 0.3% to $73.06 per barrel and WTI sliding 0.42% to $68.43 per barrel. Meanwhile, gold rose by 0.5% to $2,652.71.

US Data in Focus Ahead of the Fed

This week could prove pivotal for financial markets, with a host of US data releases scheduled alongside updates from key Federal Reserve members, including Jerome Powell. With only 16 days remaining until the final Fed meeting of the year, markets currently predict a 65% likelihood of a 25-basis point rate cut. However, any shift in rhetoric from Fed officials or resilient economic data could significantly alter these expectations. Friday’s employment figures are set to be the highlight of the week, although other key data releases—including CPI figures in the following seven days—could also influence market movements. Investors anticipate heightened activity as US traders return to action following the Thanksgiving holiday, reacting to fresh updates.

Full Calendar Week Ahead for Traders

A pivotal week lies ahead for financial markets, with a strong emphasis on the US economy dominating the macroeconomic calendar. Notably, today’s trading session begins with significant events likely to induce early-week volatility. Asian markets will initially focus on Australia’s latest Retail Sales figures, with a month-on-month increase of 0.4% anticipated. The London session is relatively quiet, but the New York session brings the first—though certainly not the last—tier-one US data release of the week. The ISM Manufacturing PMI is expected to come in at 47.7. Later in the day, traders will also hear from Fed members Waller and Williams, with their commentary eagerly awaited as the year’s final Fed meeting approaches.

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