Traders are preparing for significant moves across currencies later today as key US employment data is released. Several major currencies are currently at vulnerable levels, potentially adding further volatility to currency markets when the data is announced. USDJPY, in particular, presents one of the best opportunities, as it is trading just below multi-month highs and could experience significant movement if those topside levels break.
The expectation is for the headline Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) figure to show an increase of 164k jobs in December, with the unemployment rate remaining steady at 4.2%. Average Hourly Earnings are projected to rise by 0.3% month-on-month. A stronger-than-expected NFP print or a reduction in the unemployment rate would likely result in a breakout above the resistance level, potentially initiating a longer-term move toward the 34-year highs reached in mid-2024. Conversely, weaker data could prompt a significant retreat back into recent ranges, with initial support near overnight lows and the 200-Day Moving Average at 157.55.
Key Levels
- Resistance 2: 161.99 – 2024 High
- Resistance 1: 158.54 – Trendline Resistance and 2025 High
- Support 1: 157.55 – 200-Day Moving Average
- Support 2: 156.00 – December 31 Low
