Australian dollar traders are anticipating significant movement in the currency today as the Australian Bureau of Statistics releases the latest Consumer Price Index (CPI) data. The market expects the quarterly data to show a 0.3% increase, with the headline year-on-year figure projected at a still “sticky” 2.5%. Meanwhile, the closely watched Trimmed Mean quarterly figure is forecast to rise by 0.6% quarter-on-quarter.
The Aussie has experienced volatile trading sessions against the USD recently. It peaked near 0.6330 late last week but has since retreated to the middle of its recent range. A weaker CPI print today could significantly raise the likelihood of an RBA rate cut in the coming months, likely triggering increased Aussie selling. Long-term support currently sits near the annual low of 0.6129. Conversely, a stronger CPI result would increase pressure on the central bank to maintain higher interest rates, likely pushing the currency higher against the USD and other crosses.
Key Levels to Watch
- Resistance 2: 0.6331 – 2025 High
- Resistance 1: 0.6310 – Trendline Resistance
- Support 1: 0.6238 – Overnight Low
- Support 2: 0.6129 – 2025 Low and Trendline Support
