Key US employment numbers are set to be released later today, and traders are bracing for significant market movements in response. While geopolitical issues have dominated market flows this week, the focus is shifting to fundamentals as traders seek guidance on the Federal Reserve’s next interest rate cut. With little else on the economic calendar in recent trading sessions, the impact of the data could be magnified, especially if the figures deviate significantly from expectations.
The market expects the headline Non-Farm Employment Change figure to show an increase of 169,000 jobs last month, with the Unemployment Rate holding steady at 4.1% and Average Hourly Earnings rising by 0.3%. Any deviation of ±30,000 jobs from the forecast could trigger substantial market moves.
The Euro is currently trading near key technical levels, presenting strong trading opportunities following the data release. It has been trending toward the upper end of its recent range after the dollar weakened for most of the week, but that could change swiftly tonight. A weaker-than-expected jobs report could see recent highs and trendline resistance on the hourly chart tested quickly, while a stronger report would likely push the pair back into its range, targeting the annual lows seen on Monday.
Key Levels to Watch:
Resistance:
- 1.0532 – 2025 High
- 1.0466 – Trendline Resistance
Support:
- 1.0350 – Overnight Low
- 1.0142 – Trendline Support and 2025 Low
