It’s the first week of the month again, which means key US data releases, particularly job numbers, throughout the week. There are also several other important economic updates from the US and other jurisdictions. On top of that, we have the European Central Bank’s (ECB) rate decision and a host of updates from major central bank figures.
Given all of the above, traders anticipate that markets will remain active, with volatility expected to increase as we move through the week toward the two major calendar highlights: the ECB rate decision and US employment data.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
The Asian session is expected to be relatively quiet, but data releases begin with EU CPI data shortly after the London open. The first key US data arrives soon after the New York open, with the release of the Final Manufacturing PMI and ISM Manufacturing numbers.
The focus in Asia will be on Australian markets, with Retail Sales figures due alongside the Reserve Bank of Australia’s (RBA) Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. There is little significant data for the rest of the day, but later sessions will feature speeches from key central bankers, including the Bank of Japan’s (BOJ) Ueda and the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) Williams.
Australian markets remain in focus early in the day, with GDP data set to be released during the Sydney session. Key Swiss CPI numbers are due at the European open, likely causing movement in the Swiss franc. However, traders expect greater market reactions once New York opens. The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change report is first up, followed by the Final Services PMI and ISM Services PMI data. Later in the day, the usual weekly Crude Oil Inventory report will be released.
New Zealand traders will be on alert as Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) Governor Adrian Orr is scheduled to speak early in the Asian session. In Europe, initial attention will be on the UK’s Construction PMI data before shifting to the highly anticipated ECB Rate Decision, followed by the ECB’s Statement and Press Conference. Shortly after the New York open, the US Weekly Unemployment Claims data will be released, followed by Canada’s Ivey PMI numbers.
As is typical for the first Friday of the month, the market’s primary focus will be on US employment data, with Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) expected to come in around +156K. The first two sessions of the day are expected to be relatively quiet until US markets open. Canadian employment numbers are due at the same time, though they are likely to be overshadowed by the US data in terms of market impact. The action doesn’t end there, as several FOMC members, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, are scheduled to speak later in the day.
