The Aussie has seen a strong rally over the last couple of trading sessions as geopolitical factors have dominated flows across FX and led to a sharp sell-off in the greenback. However, traders’ focus will turn back to fundamentals today, with the Australian Bureau of Statistics set to release the latest GDP data. Market expectations are for the data to show a 0.6% increase in the quarter-on-quarter figure, which would represent a significant improvement from last quarter’s 0.3% increase and lend some credence to the Reserve Bank’s hawkish rhetoric following last month’s rate cut.
Any significant deviation from the expected 0.6% print should lead to notable moves in the Aussie, both against the dollar and on the crosses, where it has experienced strong depreciation in recent days. Against the dollar, it has rallied well off levels just under 62 cents but is likely to face resistance near the 63-cent level, where both hourly trendline resistance and the 200-day moving average converge. A weaker print could ease some pressure on the RBA to maintain high rates, potentially causing the Aussie to retreat back into its range, with trendline support at 0.6190 as the initial target.
Resistance Levels:
- Resistance 2: 0.6308 – Trendline Resistance
- Resistance 1: 0.6292 – 200-Day Moving Average
Support Levels:
- Support 1: 0.6185 – Trendline Support and March Low
- Support 2: 0.6095 – Long-term Trendline Support
