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Friday 5th May 2023: Fed Pause Lifts Gold, Weighs on Dollar and Oil; Asian Stocks Mixed

Global Markets:

  • Asian Stock Markets : Shanghai Composite down 0.48%, Hang Seng up 0.42%, ASX up 0.37%
  • Commodities : Gold at $2045.20 (-0.51%), Silver at $26.18 (-0.20%), Brent Oil at $73.97 (+2.03%), WTI Oil at $69.94 (+2.01%)
  • Rates : US 10-year yield at 3.403, UK 10-year yield at 3.777, Germany 10-year yield at 2.258

News & Data:

  • (CHF) CPI m/m 0.00% vs 0.20% expected
  • (CAD) Ivey PMI 56.8 vs 59 expected
  • (USD) Unemployment Claims 242K vs 239K expected
  • (EUR) Main Refinancing Rate 3.75% vs 3.75% expected

Markets Update:

Asian markets ended mixed on Thursday as investors weighed the impact of the US Fed’s decision to keep interest rates unchanged and the signs of slowing global economic growth. The Fed signaled that it would not raise rates again this year, citing muted inflation and rising risks to the outlook. The move boosted the demand for safe-haven assets such as gold and bonds, but also raised concerns about the health of the world’s largest economy.

Gold prices rose to a six-month high of $2050.4 per ounce on Thursday, as the US dollar weakened and investors sought a hedge against uncertainty. Gold prices in India, the second-largest consumer of the metal, also surged above Rs 61,000 per 10 grams, following the international trend and a depreciating rupee. The Indian rupee fell to 81.78 against the US dollar on Thursday, its lowest level since January.

Crude oil prices extended their decline for a second day, falling nearly 9% in the last two days, as worries about a weakening global demand outweighed the supply cuts by OPEC and its allies. Brent crude, the global benchmark, settled at $72.33 per barrel on Wednesday, while WTI crude, the US benchmark, dropped to $63.64 per barrel at the open on Thursday. The oil market was also pressured by a rise in US crude inventories and production.

The US dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of six major currencies, fell to 91.20 on Thursday, its lowest level since November 2021. The dollar was weighed down by the dovish Fed stance and disappointing US economic data. The US ISM manufacturing index fell to 54.2 in April from 55.3 in March, indicating a slowdown in factory activity. The US ADP employment report also showed that private sector hiring was weaker than expected in April.

Among the major Asian stock markets, China’s Shanghai Composite index edged up 0.16% to end at 3,599.04 points, as investors shrugged off the weak official and Caixin manufacturing PMIs for April. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng index fell 0.54% to finish at 28,724.88 points, dragged by losses in energy and financial stocks.

Upcoming Events:

  • 09:00 AM GMT – (CHF) SNB Chairman Jordan Speaks
  • 12:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Employment Change
  • 12:30 PM GMT – (CAD) Unemployment Rate
  • 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Average Hourly Earnings m/m
  • 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Non-Farm Employment Change
  • 12:30 PM GMT – (USD) Unemployment Rate

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