ICMarket

General Market Analysis 10/07/2024

US Stocks Edge Higher after Fed Chair Testifies – Nasdaq up 0.2%

It was a relatively quiet day again for financial markets yesterday with most assets trading at familiar levels. Investors were left slightly disappointed after the Fed Chair remained neutral in his testimony to the Senate Banking Committee. US tech stocks did rally to fresh record levels, but the moves were unremarkable. The Dow closed down just 0.13%, while the S&P and Nasdaq edged higher 0.07% and 0.14% respectively. The dollar and treasury yields pushed higher after the Fed Chair spoke, 2-year yields up 1.9 basis points to 4.637% and 10-years up 3.9 basis points to 4.308% while the dollar index climbed 0.1% to push currencies back into recent ranges. Oil fell again, Brent losing 1.3% to $84.66 and WTI dropping 1.1% to $81.41 whilst Gold closed close to flat, now trading around $2,363 an ounce.

RBNZ in Focus Today

Kiwi traders will have their chance for a spot in the limelight today of a relatively quiet calendar week when the RBNZ delivers its latest rate call. Market expectation is for the central bank to keep rates elevated at 5.5% as CPI remains up at 4%, well off levels that they are looking for moving forward. Other data points have been showing that the New Zealand economy is slowing and there is some risk that the MPC will acknowledge these leading to a move dovish outlook. This side of the trade probably has the most potential for significant moves in the Kiwi as the market is still long on the back of recent falls in the greenback. Any change in the underlying rate will see strong moves, however once again it will probably be any subtle change in rhetoric that will set up for a fresh trend.

Busier Day for Traders Ahead

It has been a quiet week so far for most of the financial markets and today’s calendar does look to promise a bit more action for traders craving some volatility. The Asian session has two major risk events coming thick and fast on the back of each other with the key Chinese inflation prints – CPI and PPI – set to come out just 30 minutes before the Reserve Bank of New Zealand updates the market on it’s latest rate call. There is little on the scheduled for the European session again (although many football fans will argue with that statement) and so we will have another strong focus on the Fed Chair once the New York session kicks off as he testifies today in front of the House Financial Services Committee – after yesterday’s comments the market is not expecting too much and so really the big play will probably come on tomorrows CPI release.