Trump Shooting to Hit Markets Today
Global financial markets are poised to react to the attempted assassination of former President Donald Trump as they open this morning, although early signs indicate a relatively subdued response with the dollar gaining some ground. US stock markets closed the previous week positively, with major indices all posting gains: the Dow rose 0.65%, the S&P increased by 0.57%, and the Nasdaq recovered from Thursday’s losses to finish 0.62% higher. US treasury yields showed mixed movement following stronger-than-expected PPI numbers, diverging as the 2-year yield decreased by 2.6 basis points to 4.481%, while the 10-year yield rose by 1 basis point to 4.202%. Meanwhile, both oil and gold experienced minor declines, with Brent and WTI dropping nearly 0.5% each to close at $85.03 and $82.21, respectively, and gold dipping by just 0.15% to $2,411 per ounce.
Trump Trade to Dominate Coming Trading Sessions
The geopolitical landscape has increasingly influenced investor sentiment in recent months, and the attempted assassination over the weekend has thrust the “Trump Trade” into the spotlight. Market participants now anticipate this theme to dominate upcoming trading sessions, fuelled by heightened speculation about Trump’s potential return to the presidency. Trump’s advocacy for looser fiscal policies and higher tariffs typically results in dollar appreciation and increased treasury yields, trends that gained momentum following the recent debate with Joe Biden. The newswires will be closely monitored in the days ahead, particularly during New York trading hours, with expectations of a strengthening dollar amid rising odds of another Trump administration.
Busy Trading Day to Kick off the Week
The start of the trading week promises to be eventful, with geopolitics expected to drive early market movements today. Attention will shift to China during the Asian trading session as they release their latest economic data, including GDP and industrial production figures. While the European session lacks major economic releases, volatility is anticipated upon the opening of US markets. Investors await the US response to the weekend’s events, alongside the release of the Empire State Manufacturing Index and remarks from Fed Chair Jerome Powell at the Economic Club of Washington DC later in the day.
