What happened in the US session?
US unemployment claims for the latest reported period were 190K, beating forecasts of 196K and the previous period’s figure of 192K. The result suggests a strengthening labour market, with potential bullish implications for the USD.
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
The session will likely see mixed price movement, with AUD as a highlight since the anticipated rise in gold, based on the latest Eurozone inflation, clashes with Australia’s easing price increases.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
ISM Services PMI
What can we expect from DXY today?
Forecasted data of 54.5 for US ISM Services PMI data indicates a slight decline from the previous 55.2. Actual data meeting/exceeding forecast can positively impact USD while falling short can lead to a negative impact.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Committee has raised the federal funds rate target range to 4.5-4.75% and plans to continue increasing it to return inflation to 2%
- The Committee will monitor incoming information and adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate to achieve its goals
- A majority vote from the Committee supported the decision to raise the target range
- Next meeting is on 23 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Gold today?
The stubbornly high inflation in the Eurozone could increase the demand for gold as a hedge against price increases. This may lead to a rise in the price of gold.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
With no significant news for AUD, short-term price direction may refer to the latest CPI y/y data release. (actual 7.4%, forecast 8.1%, and previous 8.4%). Lower real inflation could lead to a more dovish monetary policy, stimulating the economy with low-interest rates.
Central Bank Notes:
- Cash rate stands at 3.35%
- Future rate rises are expected as RBA targets the 2-3% inflation target
- Next meeting on 7 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Mixed to Weak Bearish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
RBNZ Gov Orr Speaks
What can we expect from NZD today?
RBNZ Governor Orr’s upcoming speech may have references to the New Zealand economy or interest rates in the future that may influence the NZD’s price direction. Traders should monitor Orr’s remarks and adjust positions accordingly.
Central Bank Notes:
- Monetary Policy Committee increased the OCR from 4.25% to 4.75%
- Higher interest rates are needed to reduce inflation and support employment sustainably
- Severe storms in North Island will increase inflation and disrupt production.
- Next meeting is on 5 April 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Mixed
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
Tokyo Core CPI y/y
Unemployment Rate
What can we expect from JPY today?
Tokyo Core CPI y/y forecasted at 3.3% (down from 4.3%), indicating a potential bearish impact on JPY. The unemployment rate predicted at 2.5% (same as previous) suggests a stable economy that may support JPY. The overall effect may be mixed.
Central Bank Notes:
- Cash rate stands at -0.1%
- Expanded range for 10-year JGB yield fluctuations to 0.5%
- Next meeting is on 8 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Mixed
