IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 11 December 2024
What happened in the U.S. session?
The NFIB Small Business Index jumped from 93.7 in the previous month to 101.7 in November 2024 as optimism among small business owners surged following the U.S. presidential elections as owners anticipate tax and regulation policies that favour strong economic growth. Not only was this the highest reading since June 2021, but it also surpassed market forecasts of 94.2 by a wide margin. It is also the first time in 34 months that the reading is above the 50-year average of 98. The dollar index (DXY) rose strongly from 106.30 to hit an overnight high of 106.63 before pulling back towards 106.40 by the end of this session.
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser will be speaking at the Australian Annual Dinner in Sydney where audience questions are expected. Following yesterday’s ‘dovish’ statement from the final board meeting of this year, traders will be looking to see if Deputy Governor Hauser will drop any further hints for a potential rate cut in February next year. The Aussie fell more than 1% on Tuesday losing nearly 75 pips and was floating around 0.6370 this morning.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
CPI (1:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
Headline and core consumer inflation in the U.S. has accelerated over the last couple of months and the latest forecasts for November point to another month of higher prices. Should CPI come in hot once more, demand for the dollar is likely to surge and potentially keep the DXY elevated today.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System voted unanimously to lower the Federal Funds Rate target range by 25 basis points to 4.50% to 4.75% on 7th November.
- The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.
- The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
- Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while labour market conditions have generally eased, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.
- Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee’s 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated.
- In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.
- In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
- In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee slowed the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
- The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
- The next meeting runs from 17 to 18 December 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
CPI (1:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
Headline and core consumer inflation in the U.S. has accelerated over the last couple of months and the latest forecasts for November point to another month of higher prices. Should CPI come in hot once more, demand for the dollar is likely to surge and potentially cause gold prices to pull back strongly during the U.S. trading hours.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
RBA Deputy Gov Hauser Speaks (7:00 am GMT)
What can we expect from AUD today?
Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Deputy Governor Andrew Hauser will be speaking at the Australian Annual Dinner in Sydney where audience questions are expected. Following yesterday’s ‘dovish’ statement from the final board meeting of this year, traders will be looking to see if Deputy Governor Hauser will drop any further hints for a potential rate cut in February next year. The Aussie fell more than 1% on Tuesday losing nearly 75 pips and was floating around 0.6370 this morning.
Central Bank Notes:
- The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 10th December, marking the ninth consecutive pause.
- Inflation has fallen substantially since the peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance. However, measures of underlying inflation are around 3.5%, which is still some way from the 2.5% midpoint of the inflation target.
- The most recent forecasts published in the November Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) do not see inflation returning sustainably to the midpoint of the target until 2026 but the Board is gaining some confidence that inflationary pressures are declining in line with these recent forecasts with risks remaining in place.
- Growth in output has been weak as the economy grew by only 0.8% in the September quarter over the past year. Outside of the COVID-19 pandemic, this was the slowest pace of growth since the early 1990s.
- A range of indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight; while those conditions have been easing gradually, some indicators have recently stabilised. The unemployment rate was 4.1 per cent in October, up from 3.5 per cent in late 2022.
- Wage pressures have eased more than expected in the November SMP. The rate of wages growth as measured by the Wage Price Index was 3.5% over the year to the September quarter, a step down from the previous quarter, but labour productivity growth remains weak.
- Sustainably returning inflation to target within a reasonable timeframe remains the Board’s highest priority. This is consistent with the RBA’s mandate for price stability and full employment. To date, longer term inflation expectations have been consistent with the inflation target and it is important that this remains the case.
- The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions, paying close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
- The next meeting is on 18 February 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
The Kiwi plunged 1.3% on Tuesday as it shed 75 pips in the process. This currency pair was hovering around 0.5790 at the beginning of the Asia session but overhead pressures remain firmly in place – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.5770
Resistance: 0.5830
Central Bank Notes:
- The Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) agreed to reduce the Official Cash Rate (OCR) by 50 basis points bringing it down to 4.25% on 27 November, marking the third consecutive rate cut.
- The Committee assessed that annual consumer price inflation has declined and is now close to the midpoint of the MPC’s 1 to 3% target band; inflation expectations are also close to target and core inflation is converging to the midpoint.
- Economic activity remains subdued and output continues to be below its potential. With excess productive capacity in the economy, inflation pressures have eased. If economic conditions continue to evolve as projected, the Committee expects to be able to lower the OCR further early next year.
- Domestic economic activity remains below trend, as a result of weakness in demand for durable goods consumption and investment. This has been reflected in falling activity in interest rate sensitive sectors such as construction, manufacturing, and retail trade. In contrast, some services sectors have continued to grow.
- Consistent with feedback from business visits, high frequency indicators suggest that the economy has stabilised in recent months. Economic growth is expected to recover from the December quarter, in part due to lower interest rates, but there is uncertainty around the exact timing and speed of the recovery.
- Wage growth is slowing, consistent with inflation returning to the target midpoint while employment levels and job vacancies have declined, reflecting subdued economic activity; unemployment is expected to continue rising in the near term.
- Expectations of future inflation, the pricing intentions of firms, and spare productive capacity are consistent with the inflation target being sustainably achieved, providing the context and the confidence for the Committee to further ease monetary policy restraint.
- The next meeting is on 19 February 2025.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
Robust demand for the dollar caused USD/JPY to surge past the 152-level on Tuesday to hit an overnight high of 152.17. This currency pair dipped under this level as Asian markets came online but strong tailwinds remain intact- these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 150.90
Resistance: 152.30
Central Bank Notes:
- The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided on 31st October, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period:
- The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.25%.
- The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
- The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) is likely to be at around 2.5% for fiscal 2024 and then be at around 2% for fiscal 2025 and 2026.
- While the effects of a pass-through to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices are expected to wane, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
- Comparing the projections with those presented in the previous Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices (Outlook Report), the projected real GDP growth rates are more or less unchanged. The projected year-on-year rate of increase in the CPI (all items less fresh food) for fiscal 2025 is somewhat lower due to factors such as the recent decline in crude oil and other resource prices.
- Japan’s economy is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
- The next meeting is on 19 December 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from EUR today?
The Euro fell for the third consecutive trading day as it hit an overnight low of 1.0498 on Tuesday before climbing above 1.0500 as Asian markets came online on Wednesday. Overhead pressures remain and this currency pair could resume the downtrend as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.0480
Resistance: 1.0610
Central Bank Notes:
- The Governing Council reduced the three key ECB interest rates by 25 basis points on 17th October to mark the second successive rate cut.
- Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 3.40%, 3.65% and 3.25% respectively.
- The incoming information on inflation shows that the disinflationary process is well on track while the inflation outlook is also affected by recent downside surprises in indicators of economic activity.
- Inflation is expected to rise in the coming months, before declining to target in the course of next year. Domestic inflation remains high, as wages are still rising at an elevated pace. At the same time, labour cost pressures are set to continue easing gradually, with profits partially buffering their impact on inflation.
- The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average and the Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.
- The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
- The next meeting is on 12 December 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
Strong demand for the greenback continued to lift USD/CHF as it rose above 0.8800 on Tuesday. This currency pair continued its ascent at the beginning of the Asia session on Wednesday, rising towards 0.8850 – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.8770
Resistance: 0.8880
Central Bank Notes:
- The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, going from 1.25% to 1.00% in September.
- Inflationary pressure has again decreased significantly compared to the previous quarter, reflecting the appreciation of the Swiss franc over the last three months.
- Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment was lower than expected, standing at 1.1% in August compared to 1.4% in May.
- The new conditional inflation forecast is significantly lower than that of June: 1.2% for 2024, 0.6% for 2025 and 0.7% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.0% over the entire forecast horizon.
- Swiss GDP growth was solid in the second quarter of 2024 as momentum in the chemicals/pharmaceuticals industry was particularly strong.
- However, growth is likely to remain rather modest in the coming quarters due to the recent appreciation of the Swiss franc and the moderate development of the global economy.
- The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
- Further cuts in the SNB policy rate may become necessary in the coming quarters to ensure price stability over the medium term.
- The next meeting is on 12 December 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from GBP today?
Despite a strong dollar, the pound remains resilient as Cable rose above 1.2750 on Tuesday. This currency pair edged higher towards 1.2800 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.2715
Resistance: 1.2865
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to reduce the Bank Rate by 25 basis points, to 4.75% on 7th November 2024 – one member preferred to maintain the Bank rate at 5.0%.
- The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes, and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B, starting in October 2024.
- Twelve-month CPI inflation fell to 1.7% in September but is expected to increase to around 2.5% by the end of the year as weakness in energy prices falls out of the annual comparison; services consumer price inflation has declined to 4.9%.
- CPI inflation is expected to increase to around 2.75% by the second half of 2025 as weakness in energy prices falls out of the annual comparison, revealing more clearly the continuing persistence of domestic inflationary pressures.
- The MPC’s latest projections for activity and inflation are also set out in the accompanying November Report; this forecast is based on the second case where CPI inflation is projected to fall back to around the 2% target in the medium term as a margin of slack emerges later in the forecast period that acts against second-round effects in domestic prices and wages.
- GDP had grown by 0.5% in 2024 Q2, 0.2% weaker than had been expected in the August Report, and 0.1% weaker than the earlier outturn had indicated at the time of the MPC’s previous meeting. Through the second half of 2024, GDP was projected to grow at a somewhat slower rate than in Q2 – headline GDP growth is expected to fall back to its recent underlying pace of around 0.25% per quarter over the second half of this year.
- The combined effects of the measures announced in Autumn Budget 2024 are provisionally expected to boost the level of GDP by around 0.75% at their peak in a year’s time, relative to the August projections, while the Budget is provisionally expected to boost CPI inflation by just under 0.5% at the peak.
- Annual private sector regular average weekly earnings growth has continued to fall but remained elevated at 4.8% in the three months to August; the MPC judges that the labour market continues to loosen, although it appears relatively tight by historical standards.
- Based on the evolving evidence, a gradual approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate but monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further.
- The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
- The next meeting is on 19 December 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
BoC Monetary Policy Statement (2:45 pm GMT)
BoC Press Conference (3:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from CAD today?
Headline inflation has remained within the Bank of Canada’s (BoC) target range of 1 to 3% for the third consecutive month in October while the Canadian economy experienced a slower rate of expansion in the third quarter of this year. The current macroeconomic conditions pave the way for this central bank to move ahead with a fifth successive reduction in the overnight rate, with a market forecast of a 50-basis point cut. Governor Tiff Macklem’s press conference will commence 45 minutes after the statement is released and is likely to inject further volatility for the Loonie later today.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 50 basis points bringing it down to 3.75% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization on 23rd October; this marked the fourth consecutive meeting where rates were reduced.
- Canada’s economy grew at around 2% in the first half of the year and growth of 1.75% is expected in the second half; consumption has continued to grow but is declining on a per person basis while exports have been boosted by the opening of the Trans Mountain Expansion pipeline.
- Overall, the Bank forecasts GDP growth of 1.2% in 2024, 2.1% in 2025, and 2.3% in 2026 – as the economy strengthens, excess supply is gradually absorbed.
- The labour market remains soft with unemployment at 6.5% in September while wage growth remains elevated relative to productivity growth. Overall, the economy continues to be in excess supply.
- Headline CPI has declined significantly from 2.7% in June to 1.6% in September while shelter costs inflation remains elevated but has begun to ease; the preferred measures of core inflation are now below 2.5%.
- Excess supply elsewhere in the economy has reduced inflation in the prices of many goods and services while the drop in global oil prices has led to lower gasoline prices – these factors have all combined to bring inflation down.
- The Bank expects inflation to remain close to the target over the projection horizon, with the upward and downward pressures on inflation roughly balancing out; the upward pressure from shelter and other services gradually diminishes, and the downward pressure on inflation recedes as excess supply in the economy is absorbed.
- With inflation now back around the 2% target, the Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate by 50 basis points to support economic growth and keep inflation close to the middle of the 1% to 3% range.
- If the economy evolves broadly in line with the latest forecast, further reduction of the policy rate can be expected but the timing and pace of additional reductions in the policy rate will be guided by incoming information and assessment of its implications for the inflation outlook.
- The Bank is committed to maintaining price stability for Canadians by keeping inflation close to the 2% target.
- The next meeting is on 11 December 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Oil
Key news events today
EIAI Crude Oil Inventories (3:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Oil today?
Oil prices rose on Tuesday as the combination of additional stimulus measures from China and a possible tighter supply in Europe acted as strong tailwinds. WTI oil hit an overnight high of $69.06 per barrel before dipping under $69 as Asian markets came online. Moving over to U.S. storage levels, the EIA inventories are expected to see a decline of 1M barrels of crude following a drawdown of 5.1M in the previous week. Should inventories fall more than originally anticipated, oil prices could receive another boost later today.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
