What happened in the US session?
The DXY traded with significant volatility as the price fluctuated between 103.80 and 104.60. The S&P closed slightly lower by -0.28% at the 4079 price level.
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
Look for prices to consolidate against the DXY as lower market volatility is expected today.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
USD Bank Holiday
What can we expect from DXY today?
The DXY reached a high of 104.60 during the trading session on Friday before retracing lower strongly to end the trading week along the 103.80 price level. Volatility on the DXY is likely to be low today, with the US on a Bank Holiday. Therefore, look for the price to consolidate between the price range of 103.70 and 104 as the markets look toward the next signal from the US Federal Reserve. If the price breaks above the 104 price level, the DXY could climb to retest the 104.60 high again.
Central Bank Notes:
- Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25bps taking interest rates to 4.75%
- Next meeting is on 23 March 2023
- Ongoing rate increases will be expected
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Gold today?
As the DXY retraced from the high of 104.60, Gold with an inverse relationship to the DXY rebounded strongly from 1820 to trade steadily higher toward the resistance level of 1844. While the price is likely to retrace briefly from the resistance level, to retest the 1835 price level, look for further upside on Gold if the price breaks above 1845, with the next key resistance level at 1865.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
The AUDUSD bounced strongly from the 0.6820 price area, climbing to reach just below the 0.69 price level. If the DXY continues to weaken, look for the AUDUSD to break above the 0.69 round number level to trade significantly higher. With no major news ahead for the AUD and the US markets on a bank holiday today, the AUDUSD could climb steadily higher toward the next key resistance level, the previous swing high and round number level of 0.70.
Central Bank Notes:
- Cash rate stands at 3.35%
- Future rate rises are expected as RBA targets the 2-3% inflation target.
- Next meeting on 7 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
The NZDUSD continued to trade lower to find the round number support price area of 0.62 on Friday. With the price currently bouncing from the support level, look for the NZDUSD to retrace higher toward the near term high of 0.63 before developing the next directional bias. However, watch out for the higher volatility news of the RBNZ interest rate decision on Wednesday morning. If the NZDUSD breaks above the 0.63 price level, the next key resistance level is at 0.64.
Central Bank Notes:
- Cash rate stands at 4.25%
- Central bank is likely to continue with the current path of rate adjustment
- Next meeting is on 21 February 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
On Friday, the USDJPY climbed steadily to the 135 resistance level but reversed strongly toward the end of the trading session to rest just above the round number price level of 134. This move lower was due to the sudden weakness in the DXY as the markets headed into the weekend. Currently trading along the 134.45 price level, look for the USDJPY to retrace briefly before trading lower again. If the price breaks below 134, the next key support level is at 132.60.
Central Bank Notes:
- Cash rate stands at -0.1%
- Expanded range for 10 year JGB yield fluctuations to 0.5%
- Next meeting is on 8 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
