IC Markets Asia Fundamental Forecast | 28 December 2023
What happened in the US session?
The Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond’s survey showed manufacturing activity declining once again in December. Components such as shipments, new orders and employment all edged down as firms remained generally pessimistic about local business conditions. The dollar index (DXY) slipped under 101 overnight, as weak manufacturing activity vindicates the Federal Reserve’s dovish outlook for 2024.
What does it mean for the Asia Session?
The DXY was trading around 100.80 while spot gold prices rose strongly, making an attempt to breach the $2,100/oz threshold as Asian markets came online. Meanwhile, crude oil prices pulled back overnight with WTI oil dipping under $75 per barrel.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
Unemployment claims have printed lower their respective forecasts over the last couple of weeks, indicating a robust labour market for the US. The latest estimate points to a figure of 211k, which is slightly higher than last week’s reading of 205k. Another round of softer-than-expected claims could lift the dollar during the US session.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Federal Funds Rate target range remained unchanged at 5.25% to 5.50% for the third meeting in a row.
- The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2.0% over the longer run.
- The Committee will continue to assess additional information and its implications for monetary policy.
- In determining the extent of any additional policy firming that may be appropriate to return inflation to 2.0% over time, the Committee will take into account the cumulative tightening of monetary policy, the lags with which monetary policy affects economic activity and inflation, and economic and financial developments.
- In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans.
- Next meeting runs from 30 to 31 January 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
Unemployment Claims (1:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
Unemployment claims have printed lower their respective forecasts over the last couple of weeks, indicating a robust labour market for the US. The latest estimate points to a figure of 211k, which is slightly higher than last week’s reading of 205k. Another round of softer-than-expected claims could lift the dollar and potentially halt the recent gains for gold prices during the US session.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from AUD today?
The Aussie surged past 0.6850 overnight and was one of the strongest performing currencies as Asian markets came online. It was trading around 0.6870 at the start of the Asia session and is likely to climb higher today.
Central Bank Notes:
- The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35%, marking the fifth pause out of the last six board meetings.
- Inflation in Australia has passed its peak but is still too high and the progress in bringing inflation back to the target range of 2% to 3% was looking slower than earlier forecast.
- Any further tightening of monetary policy to ensure that inflation returns to target in a reasonable timeframe will depend upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks.
- Next meeting is on 6 February 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
The Kiwi surged past 0.6350 overnight and was one of the strongest performing currencies as Asian markets came online. It was trading around 0.6360 at the start of the Asia session and is likely to climb higher today.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Monetary Policy Committee kept the OCR unchanged at 5.50% for the fourth meeting in a row.
- The Committee is confident that the current level of the OCR is restricting demand. However, ongoing excess demand and inflationary pressures are of concern, given the elevated level of core inflation.
- If inflationary pressures were to be stronger than anticipated, the OCR would likely need to increase further.
- The Committee agreed that interest rates will need to remain at a restrictive level for a sustained period of time, so that consumer price inflation returns to target and to support maximum sustainable employment.
- Next meeting is on 28 February 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bullish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
The Japanese yen gained significantly versus the dollar overnight as USD/JPY fell under the 142-threshold. This currency pair was trading around 141.30 at the start of the Asia session and is expected to remain under pressure today.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank will continue with QQE with Yield Curve Control, aiming to achieve the price stability target of 2.0%, as long as it is necessary for maintaining that target in a stable manner.
- The Bank of Japan decided on the following measures:
- Yield curve control: Negative interest rate of -0.1% on policy-rate balances and purchase of Japanese government bonds to keep 10-year JGB yields at around 0% while regarding the upper bound of 1.0% for 10-year JGB yields as a reference in its market operations.
- Inflation expectations have risen moderately with underlying CPI inflation likely to increase gradually towards achieving the price stability target, as the output gap turns positive and as medium- to long-term inflation expectations and wage growth rise.
- Japan’s economy is likely to continue recovering moderately for the time being, supported by factors such as the materialization of pent-up demand, although it is expected to be under downward pressure stemming from a slowdown in the pace of recovery in overseas economies.
- Next meeting is on 23 January 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bearish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from EUR today?
The Euro raced past 1.1050 to hit a high of 1.1120 overnight. It was pulling back slightly as the Asia session got underway but is likely to remain elevated today.
Central Bank Notes:
- The ECB kept the three key interest rates unchanged for a second consecutive meeting, keeping the main refinancing rate on hold at 4.50%.
- While inflation has dropped in recent months, it is likely to pick up again temporarily in the near term.
- Underlying inflation has eased further but domestic price pressures remain elevated, primarily owing to strong growth in unit labour costs.
- The past interest rate increases continue to be transmitted forcefully to the economy as tighter financing conditions are dampening demand, and this is helping to push down inflation.
- The Governing Council will continue to follow a data-dependent approach to determining the appropriate level and duration of restriction.
- Next meeting is on 25 January 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
The recent strength of the Swiss franc has caused USD/CHF to dive under the 0.8500-threshold overnight and it continued to slide lower as the Asia session got underway. This currency pair could fall under 0.8400 during today’s trading session.
Central Bank Notes:
- The SNB kept the policy rate unchanged at 1.75% for a second consecutive meeting in December.
- The inflation forecast puts average annual inflation at 2.1% for 2023, 1.9% for
2024 and 1.6% for 2025.
- GDP growth is likely to be weak in the coming quarters; subdued demand from abroad and the tighter financing conditions are having a dampening effect.
- Switzerland’s GDP is likely to grow by around 1% this year. For 2024, the SNB currently expects growth of between 0.5% and 1%.
- Next meeting is on 21 March 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bearish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from GBP today?
The Pound broke above the recent resistance level of 1.2780 to hit a high of 1.2810 overnight. It was pulling back slightly as the Asia session got underway but is likely to remain elevated today.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 6-to-3 to maintain its Official Bank Rate at 5.25%.
- Three members preferred to increase the Bank Rate by 0.25 percentage points to 5.5%.
- CPI inflation remains well above the 2% target, with twelve-month CPI inflation falling sharply from 6.7% in September to 4.6% in October while services price inflation declined to 6.6%.
- The decline in CPI inflation over recent months could largely be attributed to falls in energy, food, and core goods price inflation, as external cost pressures had continued to abate. Services price inflation had remained elevated, however.
- The mean projection for CPI inflation is 2.2% and 1.9% at the two- and three-year horizons respectively.
- Next meeting is on 1 February 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
The recent strength of the Loonie has caused USD/CAD to dive under 1.3200 overnight and it continued to slide lower as the Asia session got underway. This currency pair continues to face immense downward pressure.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of Canada held its target for the overnight rate at 5.0% for the third meeting in a row while continuing its policy of quantitative tightening.
- Canada’s economy stalled through the middle quarters of 2023 with real GDP contracting at a rate of 1.1% in the third quarter, following a growth of 1.4% in the second quarter.
- The slowdown in the economy is reducing inflationary pressures in a broadening range of goods and services prices, leading to the easing of CPI inflation to 3.1% YoY in October.
- The Governing Council is still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation and remains prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed and would also like to see further and sustained easing in core inflation.
- Next meeting is on 24 January 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Strong Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
EIA Crude Oil Inventories (4:00 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Oil today?
Crude oil prices pulled back overnight with WTI oil dipping under $74. However, fears over escalating tensions in the Middle East continue to prop up the price of crude. Meanwhile, EIA inventories are expected to show a decline of 2.6M barrels of crude after experiencing a build over the last couple of weeks. A higher than expected drawdown could provide a tailwind for crude prices later today.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
