What happened across the Asia session?
During the session, the Tokyo Core CPI y/y remained unchanged at 3.3%, while the Unemployment Rate slightly increased from 2.4% to 2.5%. Additionally, the Caixin Services PMI for China rose to 55.0 from the previous month’s 54.3.
What does it mean for Europe and US Sessions?
Major oil exporter Canada is likely to outshine major counterparts before the release of the key US ISM Services PMI, backed by bullish oil demand perceived from upbeat Chinese data and relatively positive Canadian data expectations.
The Dollar Index (DXY) Update
Key news events today
ISM Services PMI
What can we expect from DXY today?
Forecasted data of 54.5 for US ISM Services PMI data indicates a slight decline from the previous 55.2. Actual data meeting/exceeding forecast can positively impact USD while falling short can lead to a negative impact.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Committee has raised the federal funds rate target range to 4.5-4.75% and plans to continue increasing it to return inflation to 2%
- The Committee will monitor incoming information and adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate to achieve its goals
- A majority vote from the Committee supported the decision to raise the target range
- Next meeting is on 23 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Gold today?
The stubbornly high inflation in the Eurozone could increase the demand for gold as a hedge against price increases. This may lead to a rise in the price of gold.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Bullish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
Final Services PMI
What can we expect from EUR today?
Eurozone’s Final Services PMI for the upcoming release is forecasted to remain at 53.0, which indicates steady growth. Deviation from the forecast could cause volatility in the EUR.
Central Bank Notes:
- Main Refinancing Rate is currently at 3.00%
- ECB Governing Council to continue raising interest rates and reducing holdings of securities
- Future policy decisions to be data-dependent
- Next meeting on 16 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Mixed
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
As there is no major news event for the CHF today, the price direction will likely be influenced by previously released data. In this case, the Retail Sales y/y (actual -2.2%, previous -3.0%) and the Manufacturing (actual 48.9, previous 49.3).
Central Bank Notes:
- Current policy rate is at 1.00%
- Next meeting on 23 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Mixed
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
Final Services PMI
What can we expect from GBP today?
The United Kingdom’s Final Services PMI is forecasted at 53.3, the same as the previous reading, indicating stability. GBP may fluctuate based on actual data, with a higher reading strengthening it and a lower one weakening it.
Central Bank Notes:
- MPC voted to increase Bank Rate by 0.5 percentage points to 4%
- Near-term data developments are crucial in assessing how quickly external and domestic inflationary pressures will abate
- MPC’s updated projections show CPI inflation falling back sharply from its current level
- Next meeting on 23 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Mixed
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
Building Permits m/m
Labour Productivity q/q
What can we expect from CAD today?
The Building Permits m/m and Labour Productivity q/q are expected at +1.7% and +0.2%. Previous figures were -7.3% and +0.6%, respectively. The forecasted increase in both indicators may positively impact CAD, indicating growth in the construction industry and economy.
Central Bank Notes:
- Increased rates to 4.50%; indicated pause of future rate hikes
- Inflation in Canada is projected to drop to around 3% in the middle of 2023
- Goal is to reach the 2% inflation target by 2024
- Next meeting on 8 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Bullish
Oil
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Oil today?
China’s Caixin Services PMI rose to 55.0 in Feb 2023, beating the forecasted 52.9 and up from the previous month’s 54.3. The rise indicates potential increased demand for oil in China.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Bullish
