What happened across the Asia session?
Most major currencies continued to trade in consolidation during the Asia session.
What does it mean for Europe and US Sessions?
Look out for a possible continuation of the move from last week, with the major currencies losing ground against a strengthening DXY.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from DXY today?
The DXY climbed steadily to the upside reaching the 103 price area last week. This move higher was due to the release of significantly stronger than expected Non-Farm employment change data at 517k (Forecast: 193k) and a drop in the unemployment rate to 3.4%. The DXY could continue trading higher to the next key resistance level of 105 but would first have to break beyond the current resistance level of 103.
Central Bank Notes:
- Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25bps taking interest rates to 4.75%
- Next meeting is on 23 March 2023
- Ongoing rate increases will be expected
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Gold today?
Gold reversed strongly from the 1960 price area as the DXY strengthened, trading down to the 1865 price level on Friday. At the current price level of 1875, look for Gold to retrace up to retest the round number price level of 1900. However, the downtrend is likely to maintain, especially if the DXY continues to strengthen. If Gold breaks below the 1850 price level, further moves downside can be anticipated with the next key support level at 1800.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bearish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No Major News Events
What can we expect from EUR today?
The EURUSD currently trades along the 1.08 price area following the steep decline on Friday. While further moves to the downside can be expected, especially if the DXY continues to strengthen, the EURUSD could stage a brief retracement to the upside from this round number support level. Look for the EURUSD to retest the 1.0850 price level before trading lower beyond the 1.08 price level, with the next key support level at 1.0650.
Central Bank Notes:
- Main Refinancing Rate is currently at 3.00%
- Another 50bps rate hike is to be expected for the next meeting.
- Next meeting on 16 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No Major News Events
What can we expect from CHF today?
The USDCHF spiked up from the 0.9130 price level up to the 0.9250 price area following the release of the US non-farm employment change data on Friday. With the upside capped by the 0.9250 resistance level, look for a bullish breakout potential if the DXY continues to strengthen. The next key resistance level for the USDCHF is at the 0.94 price level.
Central Bank Notes:
- Current policy rate is at 1.00%
- Next meeting on 23 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No Major News Events
What can we expect from GBP today?
The GBPUSD traded significantly lower, down to the 1.2050 price level on Friday. With no major news events for the UK, further moves to the downside can be expected, especially if the price breaks below the 1.20 round number support level. If the DXY strengthens and the GBPUSD breaks below the 1.20 price level, the GBPUSD could trade lower toward the next key support level of 1.18.
Central Bank Notes:
- Interest rate is currently at 4.00%
- The BoE could pause on further interest rate hikes.
- Next meeting on 23 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No Major News Events
What can we expect from CAD today?
The USDCAD continues to range between the price range of 1.33 and 1.34. The current move to the upside is driven primarily by the strength of the DXY. With the continual recovery in strength expected for the DXY, further moves to the upside can be expected for the USDCAD. If the USDCAD breaks above the 1.3440 price level, the next key resistance level and possible target level is at 1.35.
Central Bank Notes:
- Increased interest rates to 4.50%
- Indicated that the BoC was likely to pause on future rate hikes.
- Next meeting on 8 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
No Major News Events
What can we expect from Oil today?
Energy prices continued to trade lower, with WTI and Brent reaching the 73.00 and 80.00 support levels respectively. If the DXY continues to strengthen further downside could be expected, with the next key support level at 78.00 for Brent and 70.00 for WTI.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
