What happened across the Asia session?
Most major currencies continued to trade in consolidation during the Asia session, but the AUDUSD traded significantly higher following the RBA interest rate decision.
What does it mean for Europe and US Sessions?
Look out for a possible continuation with the major currencies losing ground against a strengthening DXY.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from DXY today?
The DXY climbed slightly higher overnight, reaching the 103.70 price area before consolidating. With no major news events ahead for the US, the DXY is likely to retrace lower testing the 103-round number price level while maintaining the current bullish sentiment. Look for the price to complete the retracement before trading higher again, with the next key resistance level at 105.
Central Bank Notes:
- Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25bps taking interest rates to 4.75%
- Next meeting is on 23 March 2023
- Ongoing rate increases will be expected
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Gold today?
As the DXY climbed slightly overnight, Gold consolidated in a narrow price range between the 1860 and 1880 levels. Anticipating a brief retracement on the DXY, Gold could trade slightly higher before trading lower again. If Gold fails to break above the 1890 price level, the downtrend is likely to continue. Confirmation of the downside would be signaled if Gold breaks below the 1860 price level, with the next key support level at 1800.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No Major News Events
What can we expect from EUR today?
The EURUSD traded lower overnight, breaking below the 1.0780 price level to reach the 1.70 price level. This move lower was due to the release of weaker retail sales data from the Eurozone. With the current price action indicating further downside potential, look for the EURUSD to break below the 1.07 round number support level to trade significantly lower, toward the next support level of 1.0540.
Central Bank Notes:
- Main Refinancing Rate is currently at 3.00%
- Another 50bps rate hike is to be expected for the next meeting.
- Next meeting on 16 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No Major News Events
What can we expect from CHF today?
The USDCHF continues to trade along the near-term high, below the round number resistance level of 0.93. With the next key resistance at 0.94, further moves to the upside on the USDCHF would be highly dependent on a recovery in strength from the DXY.
Central Bank Notes:
- Current policy rate is at 1.00%
- Next meeting on 23 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No Major News Events
What can we expect from GBP today?
The GBPUSD traded in consolidation overnight, with no clear directional bias as the price fluctuations maintained along the 1.20 price level. Look for further downside on the GBPUSD, especially if the DXY strengthens, with the next key support level at 1.18. However, the price would have to first break below the current support level of 1.20.
Central Bank Notes:
- Interest rate is currently at 4.00%
- The BoE could pause on further interest rate hikes.
- Next meeting on 23 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No Major News Events
What can we expect from CAD today?
The USDCAD traded slightly higher overnight, as the DXY traded slightly higher, reaching a high of 1.3475. However, as the price stayed below the 1.35 round number resistance level, the USDCAD retraced lower to test the 1.34 support area today. Look for a recovery of the DXY to drive the USDCAD higher. If the price trades beyond 1.35, the next key resistance level is at 1.37.
Central Bank Notes:
- Increased interest rates to 4.50%
- Indicated that the BoC was likely to pause on future rate hikes.
- Next meeting on 8 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
No Major News Events
What can we expect from Oil today?
As the DXY traded slightly higher but consolidated under the 103.70 price level, energy prices traded slightly higher. With WTI bouncing from the 72 price area up toward the 75 price level. Anticipating a continual recovery in the strength of the DXY, WTI could trade lower again to retest the 72 round number support level. Brent moved in a similar fashion, trading higher toward the 82.00 price level. Look for a possible retracement lower, back down toward the 79 support level.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
