IC Markets Europe Fundamental Forecast | 17 October 2024
What happened in the Asia session?
For the second consecutive month, employment gains exceeded market forecasts as 64.1K jobs were added to the Australian economy while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. Job gains beat the forecast of 25.2K by a wide margin while the unemployment rate also printed lower than the estimate of 4.2%. September’s report showed job gains led by full-time employment, a strong reversal from a poor showing in August. The Aussie surged as high as 0.6710 before dipping under 0.6700 by midday Asia.
What does it mean for the Europe & US sessions?
Following yesterday’s inflation data, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey along with several MPC members will testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament’s Treasury Committee at an unspecified time today. These hearings typically last a few hours and could trigger higher-than-usual volatility for the pound.
After reducing interest rates by 60 basis points (bps) at September’s meeting, the ECB is widely expected to make further cuts later today. However, a smaller reduction of 25 bps looks to be on the table at today’s meeting which would bring the main refinancing rate down to 3.40%. Following which, ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference will commence half an hour later and investors will be paying close attention to her statements and replies to questions from the audience – the Euro could face extreme volatility during these events.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
Retail Sales (12:30 pm GMT)
Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from DXY today?
Retail sales have been pretty steady over the past 12 months to highlight resilient consumer spending in the U.S. despite high interest rates, with sales surging 1.1% MoM in July but rising just 0.1% MoM in August. The estimate of 0.3% for September points to a decent rebound in consumer spending and stronger sales could provide further tailwinds for the greenback.
After spiking to 258K in the previous week due to mostly to hurricane-related incidents in the Gulf of Mexico, unemployment claims are forecasted to remain elevated with a reading of 241K (the 4-week average currently sits at 231K) as the fall-out from hurricane-related job losses come to the forefront. Should claims continue to trend higher in the latest report, it would question the strength of the U.S. labour market once again.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Federal Funds Rate target range was reduced by 50 basis points to 4.75% to 5.00% on 18th September in an 11 to 1 vote with Governor Michelle Bowman dissenting, preferring to cut rates by a smaller amount.
- The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2% over the longer run and has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%, and judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are roughly in balance.
- The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee is attentive to the risks to both sides of its dual mandate.
- Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace while job gains have slowed, and the unemployment rate has moved up but remains low.
- Inflation has made further progress toward the Committee’s 2% objective but remains somewhat elevated.
- In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks and does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2%.
- In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook and would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee’s goals.
- In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities. Beginning in June, the Committee slowed the pace of decline of its securities holdings by reducing the monthly redemption cap on Treasury securities from $60 billion to $25 billion.
- The Committee will maintain the monthly redemption cap on agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities at $35 billion and will reinvest any principal payments in excess of this cap into Treasury securities.
- Next meeting runs from 6 to 7 November 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
Retail Sales (12:30 pm GMT)
Unemployment Claims (12:30 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Gold today?
Retail sales have been pretty steady over the past 12 months to highlight resilient consumer spending in the U.S. despite high interest rates, with sales surging 1.1% MoM in July but rising just 0.1% MoM in August. The estimate of 0.3% for September points to a decent rebound in consumer spending and stronger sales could provide further tailwinds for the greenback.
After spiking to 258K in the previous week due to mostly to hurricane-related incidents in the Gulf of Mexico, unemployment claims are forecasted to remain elevated with a reading of 241K (the 4-week average currently sits at 231K) as the fall-out from hurricane-related job losses come to the forefront. Should claims continue to trend higher in the latest report, it would question the strength of the U.S. labour market once again.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Australian Dollar (AUD)
Key news events today
Labour Force Report (12:30 am GMT)
What can we expect from AUD today?
For the second consecutive month, employment gains exceeded market forecasts as 64.1K jobs were added to the Australian economy while the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1%. Job gains beat the forecast of 25.2K by a wide margin while the unemployment rate also printed lower than the estimate of 4.2%. September’s report showed job gains led by full-time employment, a strong reversal from a poor showing in August. The Aussie surged as high as 0.6710 before dipping under 0.6700 by midday Asia.
Central Bank Notes:
- The RBA kept the cash rate target unchanged at 4.35% on 24th September, marking the seventh consecutive pause.
- Inflation has fallen substantially since its peak in 2022, as higher interest rates have been working to bring aggregate demand and supply closer towards balance but it is still some way above the midpoint of the 2 to 3% target range.
- The trimmed-mean CPI was 3.9% YoY in the June quarter, broadly as forecast in the May Statement on Monetary Policy (SMP) while headline inflation declined in July as measured by the monthly CPI indicator.
- Headline inflation is expected to fall further temporarily but current forecasts do not see inflation returning sustainably to target until 2026.
- GDP data for the June quarter have confirmed that growth has been weak but growth in aggregate consumer demand, which includes spending by temporary residents such as students and tourists, remained more resilient.
- Broader indicators suggest that labour market conditions remain tight, despite some signs of gradual easing while wage pressures have eased somewhat.
- Data since then have reinforced the need to remain vigilant to upside risks to inflation and the Board is not ruling anything in or out while agreeing that policy will need to be sufficiently restrictive until the Board is confident that inflation is moving sustainably towards the target range.
- The Board will continue to rely upon the data and the evolving assessment of risks to guide its decisions and will pay close attention to developments in the global economy and financial markets, trends in domestic demand, and the outlook for inflation and the labour market.
- Next meeting is on 5 November 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Medium Bullish
The Kiwi Dollar (NZD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from NZD today?
The Kiwi finally looks to have found a floor around 0.6050 on Wednesday after diving sharply following last week’s jumbo rate cut of 50 basis points. This currency pair was edging higher towards 0.6080 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.6050
Resistance: 0.6100
Central Bank Notes:
- The Monetary Policy Committee agreed to reduce the OCR by 50 basis points, bringing it down to 4.75% in October as inflation converges to target.
- The Committee assesses that annual consumer price inflation is within its 1 to 3% inflation target range and converging on the 2% midpoint.
- Economic activity in New Zealand is subdued, in part due to restrictive monetary policy while business investment and consumer spending have been weak, and employment conditions continue to soften.
- The economy is now in a position of excess capacity, encouraging price- and wage-setting to adjust to a low-inflation economy; lower import prices have assisted the disinflation.
- High-frequency indicators point to continued subdued growth in the near term, mostly due to weak consumer spending and business investment while labour market conditions are expected to ease further, with filled jobs and advertised vacancy rates continuing to decline.
- The Committee confirmed that future changes to the OCR would depend on its evolving assessment of the economy.
- Next meeting is on 27 November 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Japanese Yen (JPY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from JPY today?
The level of 150 has served as a recent barrier for USD/JPY as it failed to break above this mark on Wednesday. Demand for the yen picked up slightly on Thursday as USD/JPY slid towards 149 as Asian markets came online – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 148.40
Resistance: 150.00
Central Bank Notes:
- The Policy Board of the Bank of Japan decided, by a unanimous vote, to set the following guideline for money market operations for the intermeeting period:
- The Bank will encourage the uncollateralized overnight call rate to remain at around 0.25%
- The Bank will embark on a plan to reduce the amount of its monthly outright purchases of JGBs so that it will be about 3 trillion yen in January-March 2026; the amount will be cut down by about 400 billion yen each calendar quarter in principle.
- The year-on-year rate of increase in the consumer price index (CPI, all items less fresh food) has been in the range of 2.5 to 3.0% recently, as services prices have continued to rise moderately, reflecting factors such as wage increases, although the effects of a passthrough to consumer prices of cost increases led by the past rise in import prices have waned.
- Meanwhile, underlying CPI inflation is expected to increase gradually, since it is projected that the output gap will improve and that medium- to long-term inflation expectations will rise with a virtuous cycle between wages and prices continuing to intensify.
- In the second half of the projection period of the July 2024 Outlook for Economic Activity and Prices, it is likely to be at a level that is generally consistent with the price stability target.
- Japan’s economy has recovered moderately, although some weakness has been seen in part, but it is likely to keep growing at a pace above its potential growth rate, with overseas economies continuing to grow moderately and as a virtuous cycle from income to spending gradually intensifies against the background of factors such as accommodative financial conditions.
- Next meeting is on 31 October 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
ECB Monetary Policy Statement (12:15 pm GMT)
ECB Press Conference (12:45 pm GMT)
What can we expect from EUR today?
After reducing interest rates by 60 basis points (bps) at September’s meeting, the ECB is widely expected to make further cuts later today. However, a smaller reduction of 25 bps looks to be on the table at today’s meeting which would bring the main refinancing rate down to 3.40%. Following which, ECB President Christine Lagarde’s press conference will commence half an hour later and investors will be paying close attention to her statements and replies to questions from the audience – the Euro could face extreme volatility during these events.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Governing Council today decided to reduce the three key ECB interest rates by 60 basis points on 12th September, after holding rates steady in July.
- Accordingly, the interest rate on the main refinancing operations and the interest rates on the marginal lending facility and the deposit facility will be decreased to 3.65%, 3.90% and 3.50% respectively.
- Recent inflation data have come in broadly as expected, and the latest ECB staff projections see headline inflation averaging 2.5% in 2024, 2.2% in 2025 and 1.9% in 2026.
- For core inflation, the projections for 2024 and 2025 have been revised up slightly, as services inflation has been higher than expected. At the same time, staff continue to expect a rapid decline in core inflation, from 2.9% this year to 2.3% in 2025 and 2.0% in 2026.
- ECB staff projections forecast that the economy will grow by 0.8% in 2024, rising to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 which is a slight downward revision compared with the June projections, mainly owing to a weaker contribution from domestic demand over the next few quarters.
- The Eurosystem no longer reinvests all of the principal payments from maturing securities purchased under the pandemic emergency purchase programme (PEPP), reducing the PEPP portfolio by €7.5 billion per month on average and the Governing Council intends to discontinue reinvestments under the PEPP at the end of 2024.
- The Council is determined to ensure that inflation returns to its 2% medium-term target in a timely manner and will keep policy rates sufficiently restrictive for as long as necessary to achieve this aim and is not pre-committing to a particular rate path.
- Next meeting is on 17 October 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
Demand for the franc has waned this week pushing USD/CHF above 0.8650 overnight. This currency pair was floating around 0.8660 as Asian markets came online and could grind higher as the day progresses – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 0.8600
Resistance: 0.8690
Central Bank Notes:
- The SNB eased monetary policy by lowering its key policy rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting, going from 1.25% to 1.00% in September.
- Inflationary pressure has again decreased significantly compared to the previous quarter, reflecting the appreciation of the Swiss franc over the last three months.
- Inflation in the period since the last monetary policy assessment was lower than expected, standing at 1.1% in August compared to 1.4% in May.
- The new conditional inflation forecast is significantly lower than that of June: 1.2% for 2024, 0.6% for 2025 and 0.7% for 2026, based on the assumption that the SNB policy rate is 1.0% over the entire forecast horizon.
- Swiss GDP growth was solid in the second quarter of 2024 as momentum in the chemicals/pharmaceuticals industry was particularly strong.
- However, growth is likely to remain rather modest in the coming quarters due to the recent appreciation of the Swiss franc and the moderate development of the global economy.
- The SNB anticipates GDP growth of around 1% this year while currently expecting growth of around 1.5% for 2025.
- Further cuts in the SNB policy rate may become necessary in the coming quarters to ensure price stability over the medium term.
- Next meeting is on 12 December 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
Monetary Policy Report Hearings (Tentative)
What can we expect from GBP today?
Softer-than-expected inflation sparked intense selling pressures for the Pound on Wednesday as both headline and core CPI eased in September. Cable plunged from 1.3075 to as low as 1.2982 within the first couple hours of the announcement before retracing higher to rise towards 1.3040 at the beginning of the U.S. session. However, this ascent was short-lived and Cable once again fell under 1.3000.
Following yesterday’s inflation data, Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey along with several MPC members will testify on inflation and the economic outlook before Parliament’s Treasury Committee at an unspecified time today. These hearings typically last a few hours and could trigger higher-than-usual volatility for the pound.
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) voted by a majority of 8 to 1 to maintain Bank Rate at 5.0% while one member preferred to reduce Bank Rate by 25 basis points to 4.75%, on19th September 2024.
- The MPC also voted unanimously to reduce the stock of UK government bond purchases held for monetary policy purposes, and financed by the issuance of central bank reserves, by £100B over the next 12 months to a total of £558B.
- Twelve-month CPI inflation had been 2.2% in August and July, slightly lower than August Report expectations. Consumer core goods and food price inflation had remained subdued as the cost pressures from previous global shocks had unwound further, and producer price levels had been broadly flat while energy prices had continued to drag on CPI inflation.
- Services price inflation had increased to 5.6% in August compared to 5.2% in July and 5.7% in June. This was slightly lower in August than had been expected at the time of the August Report. There had been volatility in a number of services sub-components in the July and August outturns, including accommodation and catering prices and airfares.
- GDP had increased by 0.6% in 2024 Q2, 0.1 percentage points lower than had been expected in the August Monetary Policy Report. That had followed 0.7% growth in Q1, but Bank staff judged that the underlying pace of growth had been somewhat weaker during the first half of the year.
- Headline GDP growth was expected to return to its underlying pace of around 0.3% per quarter in the second half of the year. Based on a broad set of indicators, the MPC judged that the labour market continued to loosen but that it remained tight by historical standards.
- Monetary policy decisions have been guided by the need to squeeze persistent inflationary pressures out of the system so as to return CPI inflation to the 2% target both in a timely manner and on a lasting basis; policy has been acting to ensure that inflation expectations remain well anchored.
- In the absence of material developments, a gradual approach to removing policy restraint remains appropriate while monetary policy will need to continue to remain restrictive for sufficiently long until the risks to inflation returning sustainably to the 2% target in the medium term have dissipated further.
- The Committee continues to monitor closely the risks of inflation persistence and will decide the appropriate degree of monetary policy restrictiveness at each meeting.
- Next meeting is on 7 November 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
After rallying strongly since the beginning of October, USD/CAD looks to have finally run out of steam after hitting a high of 1.3838 on Tuesday. This currency pair has pulled back quite sharply and was sliding lower towards 1.3750 at the beginning of the Asia session – these are the support and resistance levels for today.
Support: 1.3730
Resistance: 1.3840
Central Bank Notes:
- The Bank of Canada reduced its target for the overnight rate by 25 basis points for the third consecutive meeting to 4.25% while continuing its policy of balance sheet normalization on 4th September.
- Canada’s economy grew 2.1% in the second quarter of 2024, led by government spending and business investment.
- This second quarter GDP growth was slightly stronger than forecast in July, but preliminary indicators suggest that economic activity was soft through June and July.
- As expected, inflation slowed further to 2.5% in July. The Bank’s preferred measures of core inflation averaged around 2.5% and the share of components of the consumer price index growing above 3% is roughly at its historical norm.
- High shelter price inflation is still the biggest contributor to total inflation but is starting to slow while inflation also remains elevated in some other services.
- The labour market continues to slow, with little change in employment in recent months. Wage growth, however, remains elevated relative to productivity.
- The Governing Council is carefully assessing these opposing forces on inflation and monetary policy decisions will be guided by incoming information and our assessment of their implications for the inflation outlook.
- The Bank remains resolute in its commitment to restoring price stability for Canadians.
- Next meeting is on 23 October 2024.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
EIA Crude Oil Inventories (3:00 pm GMT)
What can we expect from Oil today?
After experiencing a large build of 10.9M barrels of crude in the previous week, almost 1.6M barrels were drawn from storage in the latest reading versus the forecast of a 3.2M-build. After suffering three days of heavy losses with WTI oil losing nearly 7.5% at its lowest point, this benchmark stabilized around $70 per barrel on Wednesday before inching higher towards the $71-mark this morning. Crude prices could remain supported and grind higher as the day progresses while awaiting the release of the EIA inventories later today – another surprise drawdown could aid in providing a near-term floor for this commodity.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
