What happened across the Asia session?
Most major currencies traded in consolidation during the Asia session.
What does it mean for Europe and US Sessions?
Look out for higher volatility in price in the US market, with the major currencies poised for a breakout.
The Dollar Index (DXY)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from DXY today?
The DXY spiked and dipped between the 103.70 and 104.20 price range overnight as the market volatility returned following the US Bank holiday. US Manufacturing and Services PMI was released stronger than expected, which resulted in the DXY trading higher overall. Currently trading below the 104 round number level, the DXY could trade lower briefly to retest the 103.50 price level. If the price breaks below 103.50, the DXY could trade significantly lower to the next key support level at 102.85.
Central Bank Notes:
- Federal Reserve hiked rates by 25bps taking interest rates to 4.75%
- Next meeting is on 23 March 2023
- Ongoing rate increases will be expected
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Gold (XAU)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from Gold today?
Gold traded with significant volatility with no clear directional bias. However, anticipating some downside on the DXY, Gold could trade higher in the interim. Look for the price to break above the 1839 price level to signal a more sustained move to the upside. Look for Gold to retest the previous swing high 1843, with the key resistance level at the 1850 price level.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Euro (EUR)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from EUR today?
Overnight the EURUSD traded with significant volatility as the price fluctuated between the 1.0645 and 1.07 price range. The EURUSD ended the day trading along the 1.0645 price level with the price action indicating further downside potential. As the EURUSD completes its brief retracement, look for the price to break below 1.0640 to signal further downside, with the next key support level at 1.0540.
Central Bank Notes:
- Main Refinancing Rate is currently at 3.00%
- Another 50bps rate hike is to be expected for the next meeting.
- Next meeting on 16 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Swiss Franc (CHF)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CHF today?
The USDCHF traded slightly lower overnight as the price retraced from the high of 0.9280. Currently trading at the 0.9260 price level, the USDCHF could retrace lower to test the 0.9250 price level before trading higher again. Look for a recovery of strength on the DXY to signal a resumption of the uptrend, with the immediate key resistance level at 0.93.
Central Bank Notes:
- Current policy rate is at 1.00%
- Next meeting on 23 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
The Pound (GBP)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from GBP today?
The GBPUSD traded significantly higher as the price broke above the 1.2050 price level to reach a high of 1.2150, following the release of significantly better than expected Manufacturing and Service PMI for the UK yesterday. Currently trading at the 1.2110 level, look for the GBPUSD to break above 1.2150 to signal a continuation of the uptrend, with the next key support level at 1.2270.
Central Bank Notes:
- Interest rate is currently at 4.00%
- The BoE could pause on further interest rate hikes.
- Next meeting on 23 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
The Canadian Dollar (CAD)
Key news events today
No major news events.
What can we expect from CAD today?
The USDCAD climbed steadily higher to the 1.3550 price area following the release of the Canadian CPI m/m at 0.5%. This signaled a slower than expected growth in inflation which could lower the need for the Bank of Canada to raise rates higher. Currently consolidating along the 1.3540 price level, look for further strength on the DXY to lead the USDCAD to trade higher toward the next key resistance level of 1.3710.
Central Bank Notes:
- Increased interest rates to 4.50%
- Indicated that the BoC was likely to pause on future rate hikes.
- Next meeting on 8 March 2023
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bearish
Oil
Key news events today
No Major News Events
What can we expect from Oil today?
Energy prices traded lower overnight as the WTI fell to the 76.00 price level. While further downside could be expected, look for a possible bounce to the upside along the immediate support level of 75.00. Similarly, Brent fell to trade along the 82.00 price level with current price action indicating further upside potential, with the next key resistance level at 84.00.
Next 24 Hours Bias
Weak Bullish
