This week, the focus on US markets is even more intense than usual, with the combined impacts of the US election and a Federal Reserve meeting poised to significantly influence market movements in the coming months and possibly years. Markets are bracing for high volatility, and investors are well aware that by 5 pm New York time on Friday, prices could look very different.
Below is our usual day-by-day breakdown of this week’s major risk events:
Monday looks to be the calm before the storm, with only tier 3 data releases expected across all three trading sessions. Japanese markets will be closed, which may initially impact liquidity; however, attention will likely be focused on any fresh updates regarding the US election.
The day’s early focus will be on Australian markets, where the Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to announce its latest rate decision, though a ‘no change’ outcome is fully anticipated. The real focus, however, shifts swiftly to the United States as Americans head to the polls. ISM Services PMI figures are scheduled for release early on, but these are likely to be overshadowed as markets watch closely for any early voting indications.
Asian markets will have the first opportunity to respond to the incoming US election results, expected throughout the session. Early attention may turn briefly to New Zealand’s employment data, though updates on the White House race will quickly recapture focus. During the London and New York sessions, mostly second-tier data is set for release, including the UK Construction PMI, US Final Services PMI, and the Canadian Ivey PMI. Nevertheless, geopolitics is expected to dominate market movements.
The emphasis shifts from politics to central bank updates, as both the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve are scheduled to announce interest rate changes, with each expected to cut rates by 25 basis points. Traders anticipate heightened volatility around these announcements, yet election news from the US may still exert significant influence, particularly if both banks meet market expectations.
The event calendar on Friday appears quieter than earlier in the week, but markets are expected to remain potentially volatile. With few notable events scheduled in the Asian and London sessions, early attention at the New York open will turn to Canada for the latest employment data release. Later in the day, the US Preliminary University of Michigan consumer sentiment figures are due, while over the weekend, traders will also keep an eye out for key inflation data from China.
