It may sound like a broken record, but last week was highly volatile in the financial markets, and traders are expecting more of the same in the week ahead. Market participants who were anticipating range-bound trading conditions and quiet markets during the usual Northern Hemisphere summer trading period have been disappointed, and it appears there will be more significant moves in the coming weeks.
There is much more on the macroeconomic event calendar in the coming days, with the highlight of the week likely being the key U.S. CPI numbers. However, there are plenty of other updates that could trigger movements across jurisdictions, including the rate decision from the RBNZ and some major data updates from the UK.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It’s the usual quiet start to the week, although traders in the Asian session will be on their toes, with liquidity likely thinner due to a Japanese bank holiday and New Loans data due from China.
Things start to pick up on the calendar, with some key data due in all sessions. First up, Australian markets will be closely watching the latest Wage Price Index in the Asian session. The focus will shift to the UK at the London open, with key employment numbers due, and we have the first tier 1 data out in the U.S. soon after the New York open in the form of the PPI data.
Asian markets will be focused on New Zealand, as the Reserve Bank of New Zealand announces its latest rate decision along with a statement and press conference. UK data will again be in focus at the European open with CPI data due early in the session. However, the big focus of the day will be on the crucial CPI inflation number due from the U.S. early in the New York session.
Kiwi traders will be alert first thing in the Asian session, with the RBNZ Governor scheduled for several interviews early in the day. Later in the session, Australian employment numbers are due, followed by a significant data dump from China, with Industrial Production and Retail Sales numbers as highlights. Once again, UK data is due soon after the London open, this time with GDP data. Traders will also expect thinner conditions with some major centers on holiday for Assumption Day. More key data from the U.S. is due, including Retail Sales, weekly unemployment claims, and updates from both the Philly Fed and Empire State Manufacturing Index.
The Antipodes remain in focus on Friday as we hear from both RBA Governor Michele Bullock and RBNZ Governor Adrian Orr during the opening session of the day. There is another UK data release at the European open, with Retail Sales numbers, and more U.S. data later in the day to close out the week, including Building Permits numbers and the Preliminary University of Michigan Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data.
