It looks like a steadier week ahead on the macroeconomic calendar after yet another busy week last week. There is some key inflation data due across various jurisdictions, which investors and central banks alike will be focusing on, but it is certainly a lot quieter than last week’s schedule.
Geopolitical updates will again come into consideration as we progress through the week, with tariffs from the US still very much front of mind for investors. Traders will also be paying close attention to conflicts in both Ukraine and the Middle East, which are still ongoing and have influenced markets again recently.
Here is our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It is PMI day across the market, with Flash Manufacturing and Services PMI data due across several jurisdictions throughout the day, including Australia, France, Germany, the UK, the EU, and the US. Later in the day, we have our first central bank speakers for the week, with remarks from the Fed’s Bostic and the Bank of England’s Andrew Bailey.
Tuesday looks slightly more subdued, with nothing of note due out in the Asian session. The European session features the German Ifo Business Climate data, which will keep euro traders on their toes, while US data releases include CB Consumer Confidence, New Home Sales, and the Richmond Manufacturing Index, all due shortly after the New York open.
Wednesday may be the busiest day of the week in terms of scheduled data, with key CPI numbers due from both Australia and the UK, likely causing volatility in their respective markets given each central bank’s focus on this data. The UK’s annual budget is also set to be released during the London session. Meanwhile, in the US, we have Durable Goods data and speeches from the Fed’s Kashkari and Musalem.
There is little on the calendar in the first two trading sessions of the day on Thursday, but the New York open sees the release of US Final GDP data and the weekly Unemployment Claims numbers. Pending Home Sales data is also due later in the day.
Inflation data is once again in focus on Friday, with key numbers due at either end of the day. Tokyo Core CPI data will have Japanese traders fixed to their screens early in the Asian session before attention shifts to UK markets near the London open, when Retail Sales data is released. However, the most significant data release of the week likely comes towards the end of the day, with the Core PCE Price Index numbers due shortly after the New York open. At the same time, Canadian GDP data will also be released, followed later in the session by the Revised University of Michigan figures. However, the Fed’s preferred inflation measure is expected to dominate market sentiment.
