It looks set to be a significant week ahead for financial markets, with a wealth of US economic data, critical tech earnings updates, and further developments in the run-up to the US election all likely to make an impact.
Last week now seems to have been the calm before what could be a pivotal fortnight for both the US economy and global markets. Key employment figures are due, which traders will scrutinise closely after last month’s strong results led to a notable shift in expectations for the Federal Reserve.
Adding to the mix, we have earnings updates from five of the ‘Magnificent 7’, alongside a close race for the White House, key economic data from other major regions, and an interest rate decision from the Bank of Japan, leaving no room for complacency in the coming days and weeks.
Here is our day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
Monday appears to be a calmer day with limited scheduled events likely to impact markets. The main geopolitical updates are Japan’s Lower House elections and a statement from Bank of Canada Governor Tiff Macklem later in the day. Overall, smoother trading conditions are expected to start the week.
Activity on the calendar picks up later on Tuesday. During the London session, we’ll have the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report Hearings, though the main focus will shift to the US later in the day. The CB Consumer Confidence and JOLTS Job Openings data are due soon after the New York open, while stock markets will also react to Alphabet’s earnings report.
In the Asian session, attention turns to Australia with the latest CPI data out during the Sydney morning. In Europe, inflation data from Germany (CPI) and Spain (Flash CPI) will be released early on. The US market will have another ‘double play’ of data, with GDP figures and ADP Non-Farm Employment numbers both out simultaneously. The day will end with earnings reports from Facebook and Microsoft.
Australian Retail Sales data will kick off the Asian session, though this may soon be eclipsed by Chinese Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI figures. Later in the day, we expect significant movements in the Yen with a major rate decision from the Bank of Japan. Although the European session is lighter, the US session promises volatility with a ‘triple header’ of updates: the PCE Price Index, Employment Cost Index, and weekly Unemployment Claims. Additionally, the Chicago PMI numbers will be out, and Amazon and Apple are set to release earnings after hours.
If the week hasn’t delivered enough potential for market shifts, Friday closes with the all-important US Non-Farm Payrolls. There’s little scheduled for the Asian session, but Swiss Franc traders will be focused on Switzerland’s CPI update early in the London session. The US employment data, including a forecasted 111k increase for the headline figure, a 0.3% rise in Average Hourly Earnings, and an anticipated steady Unemployment Rate at 4.1%, is expected to add extra volatility to the final hours of the week.
