Global markets experienced another strong week as traders continued to price in a soft landing for the world’s largest economy, alongside expectations of further rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Asian markets were also buoyed by a significant stimulus package from China. In the US, stock markets finished the week on a positive note, with the Dow reaching a fresh high on Friday.
Looking ahead, traders are anticipating another volatile week, which could begin as early as the market open on Monday, as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East intensify. A heavy data calendar is also expected, with a focus on US jobs figures and several central bank members scheduled to speak throughout the week.
Here’s a day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events in the coming days:
The week kicks off with a busy session as haven assets could see gapping on the open following increased tensions in the Middle East over the weekend. Early in the day, attention will shift to Chinese markets with the release of Manufacturing and Non-Manufacturing PMI figures. During the European session, inflation data takes centre stage, with Germany’s CPI numbers being updated throughout the day as individual states release their figures. In the US session, central bank activity will be in focus, with several key officials set to speak, culminating in an update from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell later in the day.
On Tuesday, markets in New Zealand and Australia will be in the spotlight, with the NZIER Business Confidence data due in early trading, followed by Australian Retail Sales figures. Chinese markets will close for the remainder of the week from Tuesday onwards, which could lead to lower liquidity. In Europe, attention will be on inflation once more, with the Eurozone Flash CPI Estimates due. In the US, the first significant jobs data of the week will be released, with the JOLTS Job Openings report and ISM Manufacturing PMI figures scheduled.
Wednesday appears to be relatively quiet in the early trading sessions, with little of note scheduled. However, once the New York session opens, there will be important data to watch, including the ADP Non-Farm Employment figures and the weekly Crude Oil inventory update.
The Asian session is expected to remain relatively subdued, but attention will shift to Switzerland at the European open, with the latest CPI data due. In the US, more jobs data will be released, starting with the weekly Unemployment Claims figures, followed by the ISM Services PMI midway through the session.
Friday has the potential to be the busiest day of the week, with key US employment data, including the Non-Farm Payrolls, released early in the US session. Although there is little scheduled in Asia, and only UK Construction data is due in the London session, the US employment numbers are likely to dominate market sentiment. Later in the day, the Canadian Ivey PMI figures will be released, but traders expect the focus to remain on the US data.
