Traders are predicting another volatile week ahead as geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to increase, with further escalation of the conflict over the weekend. The event calendar is a lot lighter this week after a major one last week, which culminated in a surprising US jobs report. This could lead to further market moves at the Asian open on Monday.
Central bankers are fairly active during the week, with a series of meeting minutes due and numerous speaking engagements scheduled, especially from FOMC members, though we will not hear from figures like Jerome Powell.
Here’s our usual day-by-day breakdown of the major risk events this week:
It’s a quiet start to the trading week with very little of note on the macroeconomic calendar across all three sessions. Both Australian and Chinese markets are on holiday during the Asian session, which could lead to liquidity issues, especially if developments in the Middle East conflict result in sharp market moves at the open.
Tuesday also looks relatively bare in terms of data releases and major market updates. The initial focus during the Asian session will be on Australia with the release of the RBA’s Monetary Policy Meeting Minutes. After that, only third-tier data is expected as the day progresses.
Wednesday is central bank-heavy, with the Reserve Bank of New Zealand set to announce its latest rate decision in the Asian session, followed by the release of the FOMC Meeting Minutes at the end of the day. The RBNZ is expected to accelerate rate cuts with a 50-basis-point reduction, which has already placed pressure on the kiwi dollar, and more could follow if dovish rhetoric continues. The rest of the session is quiet, but US Oil Inventory data will be released before the market shifts focus to the FOMC minutes.
It’s another quiet day in the first two trading sessions, though euro traders will pay close attention to the ECB Monetary Policy Meeting notes in the London session. The main data release of the week comes early in the New York session with the release of the US CPI data. Weekly unemployment claims are due at the same time, but any changes in inflation data will likely dominate market movements.
The final trading day of the week starts quietly in the Asian session, with no significant risk events on the calendar. However, major data is expected later in the day. The London session will focus on the UK economy with the release of the latest GDP figures. Early in the New York session, the PPI numbers will be released. While PPI is usually less impactful than CPI, it can still influence market movements. The week will wrap up with the University of Michigan’s Preliminary Consumer Sentiment and Inflation Expectations data.
