EUR/USD:
Weekly Timeframe: The Euro continues to depreciate against the Dollar as price is forced deep within the lower limits of a weekly demand area seen at 1.0499-1.0740. A break below here would likely attract further selling down towards a long-term weekly swap level coming in at 1.0411, which has remained a significant hurdle since1997.
Daily Timeframe: From the daily timeframe, we can see that yesterday’s daily candle took out a major daily swap level coming in at 1.0664, and has come within a stone’s throw away from hitting another daily swap level seen at 1.0499 (the low of our weekly demand area above).
4hr Timeframe: The latest coming in from the 4hr timeframe shows that the EUR/USD chewed through demand at 1.0700 with relative ease, and continued to spiral south taking out 1.0600 in the process.
We know from the daily timeframe that price is currently hovering just above a daily swap level at 1.0499 (low of weekly demand), and that from a technical standpoint, the Euro is in oversold territory at the moment. However, entering long into this selling onslaught is not really something our team is comfortable with, despite what the higher-timeframe technical picture is saying.
That being the case, our main focus for today on this pair is going to be watching for price to retest the 1.0600 (tentative sells seen just below at 1.0597) hurdle as resistance, and look to get in on this trend! For anyone thinking along the same lines, please do remain aware that you will be, by selling at 1.0600, potentially shorting into higher-timeframe buyers (see above), so waiting for lower timeframe confirmation is highly recommended here.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: 1.0597 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
GBP/USD:
Weekly Timeframe: From the pits of the weekly timeframe, we can see that price has broken below a weekly Quasimodo support level at 1.5007, and effectively opened the trapdoor for the GBP to challenge a major weekly swap level coming in at 1.4832.
Daily Timeframe: The recent descent on the GBP has forced price into a relatively important daily demand area positioned just below the weekly Quasimodo support level (see above) at 1.4812-1.4949. The reason for its importance is simply because this area of demand was the origin of a year-long uptrend seen back in mid-2013.
4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that price recently munched its way through both the psychological number 1.5000, and a small 4hr Quasimodo support level seen just below it at 1.4970. This move, as you can probably see, encouraged follow-through selling down to the 1.4900 region, where at the time of writing, supportive pressure is currently being seen.
With price recently breaking below a weekly Quasimodo support level, and driving into daily demand (see above), can anyone smell a possible fakeout here? We certainly do. Taking all of the above into account, our team’s main objective today is to watch for lower timeframe buying confirmation around 1.4900. In the event a buy trade is found, we’ll look to trail this baby up to the aforementioned 4hr Quasimodo support (now resistance) level, where, at which point, we’ll take most of our position off the table.
A break below 1.4900 on the other hand would likely force prices down to test a 4hr Quasimodo support level coming in at 1.4855 (green level), seen deep within the aforementioned daily demand area.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: 1.4900 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: N/A).
AUD/USD:
Weekly Timeframe: Further depreciation of the AUD is currently being seen as price is forced deeper within weekly demand at 0.7449-0.7678.
Daily Timeframe: The daily timeframe on the other hand, shows that price is currently teasing the upper limits of a daily demand area at 0.7449-0.7598, which, as you can probably see, is located deep within the confines of the aforementioned weekly demand area.
4hr Timeframe: From the 4hr timeframe, we can see that price recently broke below the 0.7600 handle, and is, at the time of writing, seen retesting this level as resistance. Shorting this retest down to 0.7550 could be a possibility due to the prevailing downtrend. However, one MUST remain fully aware that they would effectively be selling into higher-timeframe demand (see above).
Conversely, in the event that price breaks above 0.7600 and retests this hurdle as support, our team would then be looking to buy (with lower timeframe confirmation) up to 0.7602, and potentially the 4hr supply seen above it at 0.7738-0.7714 given enough time. The reason we believe price could move thus high is simply because to the left we see very little active supply – check out the supply consumption wicks seen marked with blue arrows at 0.7631/0.7643.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: Potential shorts from 0.7600 [Lower timeframe confirmation recommended] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this price level).
USD/JPY:
Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price is currently lingering just below a major weekly Quasimodo resistance level coming in at 122.18.
Daily Timeframe: Looking at the daily picture, we can see that price is consolidating just below a daily supply area visible at 122.61-121.54 (encapsulates the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo resistance level). Assuming that further selling is seen from here, price will very likely visit the daily swap level positioned below at 120.45.
4hr Timeframe: The latest coming in from the 4hr timeframe shows that the buyers have, for the time being, held price above the 121.00 hurdle, which as we mentioned yesterday, could suggest that the higher-timeframe supply structure (see above) is unstable. However, for us to be fully convinced price is headed north here, we’d need to see the 4hr supply area at 122.01-121.67 taken out.
On the flip side, if selling interest is seen today around the aforementioned 4hr supply area, there could be an opportunity to short down to 121.00 for the following reasons:
- Price is located around higher-timeframe resistances (see above).
- The path south appears to be clear down to 121.00 simply because buying pressure has likely been removed, or, should we say ‘lessened’ by the very obvious buying tails seen at 121.13/121.18 highlighted with a red circle.
For anyone considering taking a trade at this 4hr supply zone, waiting for confirmation is highly recommended due to the monstrous weekly uptrend we’re in at the minute.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: 122.01-121.67 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 122.04).
USD/CAD:
Weekly Timeframe: The current situation on the weekly timeframe shows that price is once again trading around the weekly Quasimodo resistance level seen at 1.2765. A close above this level would very likely pave the way north for the market to test 1.3014, another weekly Quasimodo resistance level.
Daily Timeframe: Yesterday’s trading action saw the bulls attack January’s high at 1.2797, which, incidentally, was the first rebounding point at the weekly Quasimodo resistance level (1.2765). A daily close above this high would likely confirm higher prices towards the 1.3014 weekly Quasimodo barrier just mentioned above.
4hr Timeframe: Recent events on the 4hr timeframe show price has spring boarded itself north, effortlessly piercing through 4hr supply at 1.2771-1.2736 (encapsulates the weekly Quasimodo resistance level at 1.2765). This move very likely flushed out a ton of buy stops that were positioned above this area (including ours), and as a result, has potentially opened the gates for higher prices. However, longs will not be considered until we see price close above the 1.2800 barrier.
With that in mind, a key area we’re going to keep a close eye on today is the 4hr decision-point demand area seen below at 1.2663-1.2698. If price takes a dive today, we’re going to be looking for this zone to support price since it was here where pro money likely made the decision to break above the aforementioned 4hr supply area. Buying from here without price closing above 1.2800 is something our team is a little wary of since let’s not forget that we are trading around major resistance at the moment (see above). Therefore, in the absence of clearer price action, we’ve opted to remain flat for the time being.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
USD/CHF:
Weekly Timeframe: Further buying has been seen on the weekly timeframe, consequently taking out two major weekly Quasimodo resistance levels (0.9970/1.0065) in the process. Provided that the buyers can continue with this tempo, further upside will likely be seen towards a major weekly supply area coming in at 1.0239-1.0131, which, as you can probably see, was the area at where the SNB fiasco began.
Daily Timeframe: (Similar to the weekly timeframe) A daily close above the weekly Quasimodo resistance level at 1.0065 was seen yesterday, which has likely cleared the path north towards a small daily supply area coming in at 1.0239-1.0185 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly supply area).
4hr Timeframe: From the pits of the 4hr timeframe, we can see that the recent ascent cleanly took out the major number 1.0000 and extended higher towards 1.0100, where at the time of writing, selling interest is currently being seen.
Given the points made above, our team feels there is a good chance that 1.0100 will likely force price southbound to retest the weekly Quasimodo resistance-turned support at 1.0065. It would be here that we’d begin watching the lower timeframes for buying confirmation around the 1.0070 mark. Assuming that we find an entry long here today, we’re going to be looking to trail this one up to the 1.0204 region, which, is the very level where the humongous sell off began on that dark day of January 15th.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: 1.0070 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
- Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
DOW 30:
Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that further downside is currently being seen on the DOW at the moment. Provided that the sellers can continue with this intensity, we might, just might, see price retest the ignored weekly Quasimodo level at 17135 again.
Daily Timeframe: The recent selling has forced price to hit a daily demand area seen at 17561-17655. This daily area, in our opinion, remains a key obstacle to a move south towards the ignored weekly Quasimodo level mentioned above.
4hr Timeframe: It was reported in the previous analysis that we believed the low 17680 would give way, and force price to hit a fresh 4hr demand area at 17561-17617 (located deep within the aforementioned daily demand area), which, as you can see, did indeed happen.
We also mentioned that we set a pending buy order just above this 4hr zone at 17625 which has now been filled. Ultimately, what we’re looking for is price to close above the 17738 high, as this would not only give us the confidence to move our stop to breakeven, but it may allow us to add to our position on any retest that may be seen.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: 17625 [Live] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 17553).
- Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
XAU/USD (Gold):
Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price is currently trading just below a weekly demand area at 1166.8-1195.0. Assuming that the sellers can hold out below this zone, we feel there’s a good chance that further downside will be seen towards the weekly decision-point demand level coming in at 1136.3.
Daily Timeframe: From the pits of the daily timeframe, we can see that Gold extended lower yesterday. This selling should, as per the daily and weekly timeframes, continue down to the aforementioned weekly decision-point demand level, since (as far as we can see) there’s very little active demand seen to the left of current price.
4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that Gold has recently broken below the 4hr descending channel support line extended from the low 1228.1. Consequent to this, we saw price punch into a 4hr demand area seen at 1142.6-1152.1, and is now, at the time of writing, seen retesting this recently broken 4hr channel line as resistance. This 4hr demand area is (as far as we can see) a key obstacle to a move towards the aforementioned weekly decision-point demand level.
Taking all of the above into account, our team has no interest in selling Gold at the moment, especially while price is trading around the aforementioned 4hr demand area. With regards to buying however, risk/reward considerations argue against taking a position here. Sitting tight and waiting for price to close above and retest the 4hr descending support line would be a far more conservative approach, and one that, at the time of writing, we firmly support.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
