The Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) will announce its interest rate decision later today and is widely expected to keep the Official Bank Rate on hold at 4.50% after cutting rates in February. However, traders anticipate significant market movement around the event, particularly with the release of the Monetary Policy Statement and Governor Andrew Bailey’s press conference. A key focus will be on inflation, especially after January’s data showed a higher-than-expected rise to 3%. Additionally, the MPC—along with the broader market—has been closely monitoring Donald Trump’s tariff plans, and traders will be keen to see how much attention is given to their potential impact.
Cable has seen a strong run this year, climbing nearly nine big figures from a mid-January low below 1.2100 to recently topping out just above 1.3000. It is likely to be trading near these highs ahead of today’s announcement. The biggest impact on the currency will, of course, come if there is a change in interest rates. However, since most of the market firmly expects no change, volatility is more likely to arise from the policy statement and press conference.
If the MPC leans towards inflation concerns—interpreted as a less dovish stance—Cable could break recent highs and challenge 2024’s peak just above 1.3400. Conversely, if the focus shifts more toward global growth risks and a dovish outlook, the pair could retreat into its range, with initial support around 1.2796 and the 200-day moving average.
Key Technical Levels
- Resistance 2: 1.3252 – Long-Term Trendline Resistance
- Resistance 1: 1.3015 – 2025 High
- Support 1: 1.2796 – 200-Day Moving Average
- Support 2: 1.2247 – Long-Term Trendline Support
