The US dollar has been on a strong upward trajectory in recent weeks, largely driven by changing expectations surrounding Federal Reserve rate cuts heading into the new year. Currently, the market is pricing in just 42 basis points of cuts before 2025. However, the US election is now starting to influence financial markets, and traders are anticipating further dollar strength through the end of the year, especially if Donald Trump wins and gains control of Congress and the House of Representatives.
The DXY surged by over 8% in the 40 days following Trump’s 2016 presidential victory. While current circumstances differ, traders are not ruling out a similar movement this time around.
Recently, the DXY rebounded off the key 100.00 level, bolstered by changes in market fundamentals, and is now positioned just below the 200-day moving average. Should a strong Trump victory appear likely in the coming weeks, this particular ‘Trump Trade’ could gain further momentum.
Resistance 2: 104.63 – Trendline Resistance
Resistance 1: 103.80 – 200 Day Moving Average
Support 1: 100.41 – Trendline Support
Support 2: 100.16 – September Low
