EUR/USD:
Weekly Timeframe: Looking at the weekly timeframe, we can see that price has recently took out a weekly demand area at 1.0499-1.0740, and at the same time, likely cleared the path south down towards a long-term weekly swap level seen at 1.0411.
Daily Timeframe: Yesterday’s trading action shows buying came into the market following Friday’s close below the 1.0499 daily swap level (the low of weekly demand – see above). If the buyers can continue with this tempo, then we feel there is a good chance that price will hit the daily swap level seen above at 1.0664.
4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that the EUR/USD market opened (1.0469) with strength on Monday and has, as a result, forced price northbound towards the 4hr decision-point supply area seen at 1.0633-1.0582, where resistive pressure is currently being seen.
For those who read our last report on the Euro, you may recall that we set a pending sell order just below the aforementioned 4hr decision-point supply area at 1.0577, which, as you can probably see, has just recently been filled. Our first take-profit target is set at 1.0499. In the event that price breaks below this hurdle, we’ll then be looking down to the 1.0400 handle as a final take-profit area.
On the flip side, assuming that our trade fails to hold here, price will then likely challenge the 4hr decision-point supply area seen above at 1.0715-1.0666 (sits just above the daily swap level mentioned above at 1.0664). It would be here that we’d begin watching the lower timeframes for selling confirmation around the 1.0663 mark. The reason we require confirmation here is simply because price already visited this zone already, thus lowering the chances of a rebound being seen.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: 1.0577 [Live] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.0641) 1.0663 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1.0722).
GBP/USD:
Weekly Timeframe: The weekly picture shows that cable took out a major weekly swap level seen at 1.4832 last week, which is, at the time of writing seen being retested as resistance.
Daily timeframe: (Revised from Monday’s analysis) from the daily timeframe, we can see that the GBP is currently showing buying interest from a daily demand area coming in at 1.4686-1.4805. Assuming that further buying is seen from here, price could potentially rally as far north as the daily decision-point supply area seen at 1.5136-1.5020.
4hr Timeframe: The 4hr timeframe shows that ever since the GBP/USD market opened at 1.4721, the buyers have been in overall control. As a result of this, price broke above 1.4800 with relative ease and is now seen challenging the 4hr decision-point supply area at 1.4892-1.4844.
Taking into account that the weekly chart shows price retesting a weekly swap level as resistance, and that the daily chart suggests further buying could be seen from demand (see above), one can probably see that we have somewhat mixed signals here. Given these points, here is how we see the pound at the moment:
- If price continues south from the 4hr decision-point supply area mentioned above, and breaks the 1.4800 barrier, we’ll then be intraday sellers from that point on.
- In the event that price consumes the 1.4900 level seen just above the 4hr decision-point supply area, we’ll then begin watching for price to retest this level as support for possible buy trades up to 4hr supply seen at 1.5025-1.4969.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders are seen at: N/A).
AUD/USD:
Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the Aussie saw a further decline in value last week, which, as far as we can see, did two things:
- Force price deeper within weekly demand at 0.7449-0.7678.
- Closed below a long-term weekly trendline support extended from the low 0.4775.
Daily Timeframe: From the daily picture, we can see that although price is located around the upper limits of daily demand at 0.7449-0.7598 (located deep within the aforementioned weekly demand), the buyers have yet to muster enough strength to clear immediate resistance seen above at 0.7691.
4hr Timeframe: The AUD/USD market opened at 0.7618, thereupon forcing price northbound from 4hr demand at 0.7572-0.7614, towards the 4hr decision-point supply area coming in at 0.7692-0.7666 (located just below the daily swap level mentioned above at 0.7691).
At this point in time, our team has no interest in trading this pair until price either hits a small, almost hidden, 4hr Quasimodo support level at 0.7587, seen deep within the 4hr demand area (tentative buy orders are seen just above at 0.7589), or, we see price close above the 4hr decision-point supply area, and, if possible, the 0.7700 handle as well.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: 0.7589 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
- Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
USD/JPY:
Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that the USD/JPY pair pierced above December’s high 121.83 last week, which has, in our opinion, opened the trapdoor for prices to now challenge the weekly Quasimodo resistance level seen just above at 122.18.
Daily Timeframe: The buyers and sellers are still seen battling for position around the underside of a daily supply area coming in at 122.61-121.54 (encapsulates the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo resistance level). Assuming that further selling is seen from here, price will very likely visit the daily swap level positioned below at 120.45.
4hr Timeframe: Technically, there was not much price movement seen on Monday, therefore, most of our previous analysis still holds.
From looking at the 4hr timeframe, we believe that the 4hr supply seen at 122.01-121.67 could very well be a fake. What do we mean by fake? Well, price reacted nicely to this area once already, thus giving traders the confidence to short here again. However, lurking just above this level, as you can see in green, is the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo resistance level which is just begging to be hit. Therefore, this 4hr supply may have been planted here by pro money to attract millions of traders to place shorts here, and set their buy stops where? You got it! Right above the zone, which will provide a handsome pocket of liquidity i.e. buy stops for well- funded traders to sell into from the weekly level. With this in mind, we have decided to set a pending sell order at 122.16 to try and catch this potential fakeout.
Conversely, if price does not do the above, and continues to trade south, a close below 121.00 is what we’ll be looking for, since this will likely open the gates for a move down to the aforementioned daily swap level. The reason we believe price could drop this far is simply because demand to the left has already likely been consumed – take note of the two obvious demand consumption tails seen marked with blue arrows at 120.83/120.62.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: 122.16 (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 122.55).
USD/CAD:
Weekly Timeframe: The current situation on the weekly timeframe shows price is currently resting on top of the recently broken weekly Quasimodo resistance level at 1.2765. If the buyers manage to hold the market above this number, further buying could very well ensue up towards 1.3014 – another weekly Quasimodo resistance level.
Daily Timeframe: From looking at the daily timeframe, we can see that price is still being held lower by January’s high 1.2797 at the moment. Although price has broken above this hurdle on two occasions now, we are yet to see a daily close, which is what we’d need to confirm that bullish strength is entering the market around the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo resistance level.
4hr Timeframe: Following the market open at 1.2780, price was seen ranging between 1.2800 and the aforementioned weekly Quasimodo resistance (now potential support) level. Not too long after, we saw a break south down to 1.2734, which, as you can probably see, was clearly enough to allow the buyers back into play.
Taking all of the above into account, our team has come to a general consensus that no buy trades shall be initiated in this market until we see price firmly close above the 1.2800 handle. We agree, a close higher was seen early around the open, but, in our opinion, it was not powerful enough to condone buying.
Should a further decline in value be seen today, we’ll be looking for supportive pressure to come into the market just below 1.2734, at a small 4hr decision-point demand area seen at 1.2698-1.2725. In the event that this area is breached, we’ll then shift our attention to begin looking for shorting opportunities.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
USD/CHF:
Weekly Timeframe: For the time being, buying and selling is taking place just below a major weekly supply area coming in at 1.0239-1.0131, which, as we’re sure you’re probably aware, was the area at where the SNB fiasco began.
Daily Timeframe: Since Wednesday last week, price has been seen consolidating just below the weekly supply area mentioned above at 1.0239-1.0131. Should a selloff be seen from here, there is very little support (as far as we can see) seen in the market until price hits a small daily decision-point demand area coming in at 0.9823-0.9873.
4hr Timeframe: From a technical standpoint, very little price movement has been seen. As a result, much of our previous analysis remains the same…
At the time of writing, price is seen capped between the 1.0100 handle and a small, yet clearly resilient 4hr decision-point demand area seen at 0.9968-0.9998.
A break above 1.0100 could potentially open the doors for further upside towards a small 4hr supply area coming in at 1.0219-1.0187, which is, give or take a few pips, the point at where the humongous sell off begun on that dark day of January 15th. For anyone who is considering buying if a breakout north is seen here, please remain aware that you would likely be buying from higher-timeframe weekly sellers (see above) at that point.
Conversely, should price close below the aforementioned 4hr decision-point demand area, this would, in effect, be our cue to begin watching for price to retest this area as supply, since the path south would then likely be clear down to at least 0.9900.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
DOW 30:
Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that buying has entered the market, which could, given enough time, push the DOW back up to the 18098 level.
Daily Timeframe: From the daily picture, we can see that the DOW is currently ranging between a daily decision-point demand area seen at 17561-17655, and a daily decision-point supply area coming in at 18029-17864, so let’s not all go hitting the buy buttons just yet!
4hr Timeframe: The recent movements on the DOW index saw price rally just beautifully from the 4hr demand area seen at 17561-17617 (located deep within the daily demand area at 17561-17655). Well done to any of our readers who managed to profit here!
Consequent to the recent move, price absolutely obliterated the 4hr supply area seen at 17902-17868, and continued north, testing the 4hr supply area above at 18029-17971 (located deep within the daily decision-point supply area at 18029-17864). We mentioned in our previous report that we were not comfortable trading the lower 4hr supply area at market, since we believed price would likely test and rebound from the more extreme area of supply seen above it, which as we can see it did just that. For those who read Monday’s report, you may recall that our team set a pending sell order just below this zone at 17962, which is now filled and in profit. We’re currently watching how price reacts at the recently broken 4hr supply (now demand) area, as this could very well repel the market. In the event, however, price breaks below here, we’ll then be looking to target the 4hr demand area seen below at 17623-17704 where the full position will be closed.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: Flat (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: N/A).
- Sell orders: 17962 [Live] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 18036).
XAU/USD (Gold):
Weekly Timeframe: The weekly timeframe shows that price closed below a weekly demand area at 1166.8-1195.0 last week. Assuming that the sellers can hold out below this zone, we feel there’s a good chance that further downside will be seen towards the weekly decision-point demand level coming in at 1136.3.
Daily Timeframe: Following the pin-bar retest of the daily Quasimodo support (now resistance) level at 1170.5 on the 09/03/15, Gold, as you can see, sold off.
Everything being equal, and taking into account that price has been consolidating for the past four days, we still (as per the weekly and daily timeframes) feel this market has further south to go yet, at least until price hits the small daily demand area coming in at 1131.4-1141.5 (encapsulates the aforementioned weekly decision-point demand level). The reason for this is simply because we see very little active demand to the left of current price.
4hr Timeframe: The reason for the ranging action being seen on the daily timeframe likely stems from the fact that buying and selling is clearly capped on the 4hr timeframe between a 4hr demand area seen at 1142.6-1152.1, and a small 4hr supply area coming in at 1165.1-1161.2.
A break above this consolidation would likely attract further upside towards the daily Quasimodo level mentioned above at 1170.5, which, in our opinion, could be a number to keep an eye on for selling opportunities this week. A convincing close above 1170.5, however, would be our cue to begin watching for price to retest this level as support.
On the other hand, a break below this range would immediately see price test the daily demand area mentioned above at 1131.4-1141.5. It would be at this point that we’d start observing the lower timeframes for buying confirmation around the 1142.0 mark.
Current buy/sell orders:
- Buy orders: 1142.0 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: 1130.0).
- Sell orders: 1170.5 [Tentative – confirmation required] (Predicative stop-loss orders seen at: dependent on where one confirms this level).
